三层楼 · 标的看板 — THREE-FLOOR POSITION MONITOR
更新 2026-08-04 10:37 +08 · EXACT 10-Q RECONCILED · JUL 31 EXECUTION BLOCKED_SOURCE

STRC

STRATEGY VARIABLE-RATE PREFERRED / NASDAQ
核心约束
PERPETUAL CREDIT

BLOCKED_SOURCE：July 15 transition 仍是 issuer-attested PAID=YES / UNPAID=NO，但非 settlement ledger。August 3 8-K 披露 $52.4M funded preferred dividends，却没有绑定 STRC、July 31、holders 或 settlement；故 July 31 仍是 PAID=BLOCKED_SOURCE / UNPAID=BLOCKED_SOURCE / COMPOUNDED=BLOCKED_SOURCE。新回购 912,143 股 / $81.2M 由 BTC sale + MSTR ATM 供资，BPS 再跌；默认 NO-ACTION / no new exposure / not cash。

[HIGH] SEC 10-Q 0001050446-26-000044 + SEC 8-K 329565；paid table ends June 30 and Note 15 ends July 24。[BLOCKED_SOURCE] no STRC/date/holder execution field as of review 2026-08-04 10:37 +08。Funding ≠ settlement。
01

监控台

价格 · 信用数学 · 楼层
$89.46
-$0.04 / -0.0447%
FALLBACK
[HIGH] moomoo OpenD `AuType.NONE` raw/unadjusted · 2026-07-31 completed regular close；previous $89.50；-$0.04 / -0.0447%；below-$80 streak 0。这是 baked completed bar—not live quote；runtime failure 时旧 fallback 必须视为 STALE。
10.54% discount to $100 stated amount；12% rate 对应 13.4138162% current yield，YTM N/A。rate variable、cash dividend not guaranteed、无 routine maturity pull-to-par；$101 redemption 是 issuer option，不是 holder floor。
STATED AMOUNT
$10.3693632B
103,693,632 current shares after disclosed repurchases; not market value
RESERVE / RUNWAY
$4.0B / 27.4449m
includes expected unsettled MSTR ATM proceeds; not covenant/collateral; exact 10-Q reconciled
当前落点 vs 三层楼置信区间
current · $85-$90 stress
$89.46 · yield 13.4138%
thesis break<$50
hard stress$50-80
de-risk$80-85
current$85-90
observe$90-95
trust repair$95-99
target$99-100
call cap≥$100
$50
$80
$85
$90
$95
$99
$100
call $101
楼层
信用审计
地面
not cash / no new
当前
支付验证
一楼
payments + mNAV
资本支持
二楼
runway + repurchase
长期核心
三楼
not core credit
底气（估值）
10.54% discount / 13.4138% current yield / YTM N/A / no routine maturity
验证（市场）
[BLOCKED_SOURCE] $52.4M funding is not settlement；new $81.2M buyback + BPS third decline
结论
NO-ACTION / not cash / classification confidence 96%
02

核心判断

支持 / 反对证据 · 置信度
J1
NO_CHANGE · STRC 是 perpetual corporate credit，不是 cash 或 BTC collateral
99%
Action：NO-ACTION / no new exposure。Exact 10-Q confirms STRC perpetual、cumulative cash、non-convertible、$101 issuer redemption plus accrued/unpaid dividends and fundamental-change repurchase right；不是 cash 或 BTC collateral。bear：semi-monthly cash + active rate policy 可降低 realized duration；killer：authoritative missed/unpaid/compounded evidence 或 terms worsen。Next：explicit July 31 execution evidence。
支持
+[HIGH] exact SEC 10-Q Note 10 + incorporated STRC certificate
+[BLOCKED_SOURCE] no filing-level July 31 settlement ledger; Note 15 ends July 24
Bear case
-fundamental-change right is a narrow exit, not a normal maturity floor
J2
UPDATED · 13.4138% yield 仍未补偿 full-stack risk
94%
Action：不把 discount/yield 当加仓命令。$89.46 / 13.4138% current yield、$4.0B reserve / 27.4449m runway；perpetuity has no routine pull-to-par and upside is issuer-call constrained。关键假设：12% rate and stated amount stay applicable。bear：clean pay + recurring repurchase can repair toward $99–$100；killer：five trading closes or seven calendar days <$80、repeat BTC-funded support without BPS repair。Next：explicit July 31 execution evidence、August 15、weekly 8-K。
支持
+[HIGH] raw/unadjusted 7/31: SMA5/10/20 88.602/87.7545/87.28825; SMA50/100/200 90.2753/95.00855/96.887875; Wilder RSI14 54.0663; ATR14 2.5630
+[MED] current yield is simple $12 / price, not OAS, credit spread, duration-adjusted return, or YTM
Bear case
-price recovery with repeated issuer bids can narrow discount; a single green bar cannot prove it
J3
UPDATED · 回购已重复；供资质量反而暴露
96%
Action：不把 repeat buyback extrapolate 成 floor。新回购 912,143 股 / $81.2M；累计披露 1,201,073 股 / ≈$106.2M。新周供资为 $52.3M BTC sale + $28.9M MSTR ATM；同时 BPS 降至 201,821.8507。bear：持续回购可缩减 STRC obligation；killer：BTC/common dilution 继续供资而 BPS 不修复。Next：next weekly 8-K / two BPS repairs。
支持
+[HIGH] July 27 weekly 8-K / issuer policy; STRC ATM that week was 0, but intent is discretionary—not a guarantee
Bear case
-future purchase capacity can be funded by common ATM or BTC sales; one execution is not cadence
J4
BLOCKED_SOURCE · July 31 schedule/history 不是 payment proof
98%
Action：保持 no-new-exposure。July 31 `$0.50` 仍为 PAID=BLOCKED_SOURCE / UNPAID=BLOCKED_SOURCE / COMPOUNDED=BLOCKED_SOURCE：August 3 8-K 的 $52.4M funding use 没有绑定 STRC/date/holders/settlement。August 15 scheduled/not due；August 31 与 September 15 新宣告各 $0.50 @12%。bear：cash may have arrived but disclosure lags；killer：authoritative unpaid/missed/compounded record。Next：authoritative execution evidence、weekly 8-K、August 15。
支持
+[HIGH] SEC declaration / Strategy schedule; July 30 Q2 phrase cannot prove a July 31 execution
+[BLOCKED_SOURCE] 8-K/A only corrects interest-income label; no payment/arrears/settlement field
Bear case
-source silence alone is not a missed-payment event; it is an evidence ceiling
J5
CONFLICT · dependency events reviewed; continuous price/stack watchers failed
100%
Action：不要把 completed review 误读为 monitoring system healthy。v1 505360a24af6 PAUSED；v2 68797d038fea 与 exact-10-Q 5e56e2027523 tombstoned/not recreated after dependency matches。Their outputs were review metadata, never payment certification。Old stack 3e0a822305eb / price 297600058933 remain failed。
支持
+[HIGH] control-plane recovery handoff + direct dependency probe at 2026-08-04 10:14 +08
Bear case
-completed dependency review does not replace continuous price/stack monitoring or prove payment
03

拐点与发布

declared ≠ paid · observable owners
JUL 15
PAY
Transition dividend `$0.479166667 @11.50%`
[UPDATED/HIGH] ACCRUED=YES；DECLARED=YES；DUE=2026-07-15；PAID=YES / UNPAID=NO by issuer attestation；COMPOUNDED=BLOCKED_SOURCE。不是 settlement ledger。
J1/J4
ISSUER ATTESTED
JUL 29
FOMC
Statement 14:00 ET / press conference 14:30 ET
required-yield shock matters because STRC is a callable perpetuity
J2
manual event
AUG 04
Q2 10-Q
Exact filing reconciled; payment verdict withheld
[UPDATED/HIGH] June 30 104,894,705 shares / $10.489471B；Q2/H1 STRC cash paid $282.864M/$394.295M；paid table ends June 30 and Note 15 ends July 24。
J1-J5
REVIEW COMPLETED
AUG 03
8-K
Funding loop + future declarations published
[UPDATED/HIGH] $52.4M funded preferred dividends but not settlement；BTC sale 1,638/$104.73M；STRC repurchase 912,143/$81.2M；12% continues from Aug 16；Aug31/Sep15 declared。
J2-J5
MAIN GATE ACCEPTED
JUL 31
12%
First 12% semi-monthly `$0.50` payment
[BLOCKED_SOURCE] exact obligation $52,447,352.50；DECLARED/SCHEDULED/DUE=YES；PAID/UNPAID/COMPOUNDED unproved。Funding/history ≠ settlement。
J2/J4
v1 PAUSED · v2 TOMBSTONED
AUG 15
12%
Second `$0.50` semi-monthly payment
[SCHEDULED] July 31 record date passed / August 15 payable；NOT_YET_DUE。Exact obligation range $51.846816M–$52.3028875M。
J2/J4
future scheduled event
AUG 31 / SEP 15
12%
New Board-declared `$0.50` payments
[DECLARED/SCHEDULED] records August 15 / August 31；API isUpcoming=true；both NOT_YET_DUE。
J2/J4
future declarations
FAILED
PRICE
Zone and below-$80 persistence · v2
disabled after timeout / exit 124；five trading / seven calendar days remains hard rule
J2/J5
watch:297600058933 · FAILED / DISABLED
FAILED
STACK
Shares / rate / schedule / mNAV / runway · mstr-strc-capital-stack-v4
old shared baseline disabled after timeout / exit 124；exact 10-Q detector 5e56e2027523 is tombstoned/not recreated after match and does not replace stack/price monitoring
J1-J5
watch:3e0a822305eb · FAILED / DISABLED
04

止损条件

每层 killer / replacement gate
地面 · payment 门
现金真的付了吗？
July 15 为 issuer-attested PAID=YES / UNPAID=NO；July 31 的 PAID/UNPAID/COMPOUNDED 全为 BLOCKED_SOURCE。authoritative missed/unpaid/compounded evidence 才触发；source silence 本身不触发。
一楼 · price 门
discount 是机会还是信用压力？
五 trading closes 或七 calendar days <$80：hard de-risk review；价格本身不生成 order。
二楼 · stack 门
reserve 与 BTC 在保护谁？
runway <12m、repeat BTC sales、sub-$100 issuance 或 premature rate cut：停止升级。10-Q 已闭合 quarter bridge，但 current legal shares/July 31 settlement 仍不能用 issuer mNAV 代替。
三楼 · system / replacement 门
证据链能持续工作吗？
旧 price/stack canonical watches 未修复、两月 <$90 无 repeat support，或 STRF/debt/T-bills 更干净：保持地面。单一 10-Q detector 不解决这一层。
NO-ACTION 结论
Action：no new exposure / not cash。Evidence：[HIGH] exact SEC 10-Q 000044 + SEC 329565；[BLOCKED_SOURCE] July 31 execution。Assumption：funding/schedule/history is not settlement proof。Confidence：96% formal classification；75–90% economic attribution；actual settlement unknown。Bear：clean pay + recurring repurchase repair toward par。Killer：missed/unpaid/compounded proof、<$80 persistence、runway <12m、repeat BTC-funded support without BPS repair。Next：August 15、weekly 8-K、authoritative execution evidence；不交易、不建 broker alert/order。