三层楼 · 标的看板 — THREE-FLOOR POSITION MONITOR
更新 2026-08-04 10:37 +08 / market remains AUG 3 · EXACT 10-Q RECONCILED · CURRENT LEGAL DENOMINATOR BLOCKED_SOURCE

Strategy

MSTR / NASDAQ · COMMON EQUITY
核心约束
CAPITAL STACK

UPDATED：exact 10-Q 把 H1 CFO/CFI/CFF、gross DTA/VA、debt/preferred、ATM 与 June BPS/ADSO 变成 filed facts；August 3 8-K 仍是后续资本循环。10-Q Note 15 截止 July 24，故 $52.4M funding 仍不是 STRC settlement。默认 NO-ACTION / prefer direct BTC。

[HIGH] SEC 10-Q 0001050446-26-000044 accepted 2026-08-03T16:49:56Z；reviewed 2026-08-04 10:37 +08；exact-accession body fallback disclosed。STRC July 31 paid/unpaid/compounded all BLOCKED_SOURCE；moomoo completed bar remains 2026-07-31。
01

监控台

当前价格 · 条件等价 mNAV · 楼层
$93.28
-$4.46 / -4.5631%
FALLBACK
[HIGH] moomoo OpenD `AuType.NONE` raw/unadjusted · 2026-07-31 completed regular close；previous $97.74；-$4.46 / -4.5631%。这是 baked completed bar，不是 live quote；runtime 失效时不得把旧值冒充实时。
[CONFLICT] issuer mNAV 1.0477x（extended 1.0407x）；MSTR $93.28 + direct BTC $62,487.50（20:15:23 +08）的 carried legal 0.998865412x、mechanical Basic 1.031111305x、ADSO 1.083686148x。不同坐标不得互换；exact legal settlement BLOCKED_SOURCE。
BTC RESERVE
846,000 → 842,138
June 30 → August 2；cumulative disclosed sales 5,258 BTC / ≈$323.13M；new week 1,638 / $104.73M
LIQUIDITY / BPS
$4.0B / 27.444921568m
includes expected unsettled MSTR ATM proceeds; not collateral / covenant · BPS 210,824 → 203,683 → 201,821.8507 / KILLER WORSENED
当前落点 vs 条件等价 mNAV 置信区间
[MED] carried-legal sensitivity · exact settled shares BLOCKED
$93.28 close · carried legal 0.998865412x*
deep<$64.95
danger$64.95-79.20
negative loop$79.20-93.44
observe$93.44-100.56
repair$100.56-107.69
two repairs$107.69-121.93
reflexivity$121.93-164.67
high rent≥$164.67
$50.68
$64.95
$79.20
$93.44
$100.56
$107.69
$121.93
$164.67
mNAV≥1.50
楼层
资本栈审计
地面
prefer direct BTC
当前
修复观察
一楼
two BPS gains
经营验证
二楼
mNAV ≥1.20 + clean loop
长期核心
三楼
not BTC core
底气（估值）
[CONFLICT] issuer 1.0477x ≠ carried legal 0.998865412x ≠ Basic/ADSO；不能混用
验证（市场）
[UPDATED] exact 10-Q cash/tax/capital；July 31 $93.28；later BPS third decline；reserve $4.0B
结论
NO-ACTION / prefer direct BTC / confidence 92% / EXACT-10Q GATE ACCEPTED
02

核心判断

支持 / 反对证据 · 置信度
J1
UPDATED · MSTR 是 capital-stack junior residual，不是 direct BTC
98%
Action：NO-ACTION / prefer direct BTC。June 30 debt carrying $6.709928B / principal about $6.754B、preferred liquidation $15.462056B、later current API preferred $15.3501636B、reserve $4.0B 排在 common residual 前。bear：mNAV premium 重开可令 common 短期跑赢 BTC；killer：runway <12m、repeat BTC monetization / stress-zone ATM without BPS repair。Next：weekly 8-K / synchronized legal cover。
支持
+[HIGH] exact SEC 10-Q 000044 confirms cash flow, tax, debt, preferred and June legal/KPI anchors
+[BLOCKED_SOURCE] post-August-2 exact legal shares and isolated GAAP BTC-sale P&L remain unresolved
Bear case
-premium reopening + accretive issuance 可能令 common 在反身性窗口跑赢 BTC；不是当前默认
J2
UPDATED · BPS killer 已命中；贴近 1.0x 不是买点
96%
Action：不按价格加 common。10-Q confirms June 30 BPS 210,824 / ADSO 401.283M and July 24 cover A 364,585,501 / B 19,640,250；later August 2 BPS 201,821.8507。issuer 1.0477x 与 carried/Basic/ADSO 仍非同一坐标。第三次观察性下降令 killer 恶化；只有连续两次 BPS 上升 + exact current settled-share proof 才可重开。
支持
+[HIGH] Strategy Q2 release + August 3 8-K；holdings 842,138 / BPS 201,821.8507
+[CONFLICT] $93.28 close + BTC $62,487.50 gives carried legal 0.998865412x; issuer literal cannot replace the unresolved legal denominator
Bear case
-one BPS uptick is repair, not proof that the capitalization loop has reversed
J3
UPDATED · Q2 capital allocation 先保 senior stack，没修复 common
94%
Action：不因 STRC buyback 升级 common。July 27–Aug 2 MSTR ATM 3,011,361/$290.6M；BTC sale 1,638/$104.73M；STRC repurchase 912,143/$81.2M。$52.4M funded preferred dividends，$52.3M BTC proceeds + $28.9M MSTR proceeds funded buyback。support 真实，但由 BTC/common dilution 供资且 BPS 再降。Next：next weekly 8-K / synchronized legal cover。
支持
+[HIGH] August 3 SEC 8-K；STRC repurchase 912,143 / $81.2M and BTC/Common funding split are actual execution
+[CONFLICT] “buy and hold indefinitely” marketing vs actual BTC sales; disclosed execution wins
Bear case
-mNAV >1 issuance may be mathematically accretive, but management gave no hard numeric ATM gate
J4
UPDATED · 7/31 回落仍是 price signal，不是 capital-stack repair
90%
Action：观察，不按价格加 common。完成 bar $93.28，较前一日 -$4.46/-4.5631%；Wilder RSI14 42.9992，ATR14 $7.0140。bear：price reclaims $93.44 then BPS repair with capital evidence；killer：价格无法替代 BPS / reserve / legal share proof。Next：next completed bar and weekly capital filing。
支持
+[HIGH] moomoo OpenD raw/unadjusted July 31 completed close; volume 20,678,317; direct BTC $62,487.50 cross-checked 2026-08-03 20:15:23 +08
Bear case
-technical repair can increase reflexivity probability, but it cannot close the current settled-share denominator or isolated GAAP BTC-sale P&L blockers
03

拐点与发布

能改写判断的 observable signals
JUL 30
8-K/A
Corrected Q2 exhibit changes one label, not the capital stack
[CORRECTED/HIGH] `interest income (expense), net`; Q2 `$(1.250)M`, six-month `$0.574M`. No change to dividend execution, BTC sales, issuance or repurchase facts.
J1/J3
CORRECTED
AUG 03
8-K / BPS
BTC/Common funded capital loop — killer worsened
BPS 210,824 → 203,683 → 201,821.8507；BTC sale $104.73M + MSTR ATM $290.6M funded dividends, STRC buyback and reserve。
J1-J3
MATERIAL UPDATE
FAILED
HARNESS
mstr-strc-capital-stack-v4 is disabled
watch:3e0a822305eb timed out / exit 124；not armed；no mutation in this review
J1-J4
FAILED
AUG 04
10-Q / TAX
Cash flow and gross DTA/VA filed; sale settlement bridge conflicts
[UPDATED] H1 CFO/CFI/CFF +$9.850M/-$14.366115B/+$13.769567B；full VA against $4.60B domestic net DTA。[CONFLICT] $83.205M carrying removed vs $41.038M cash receipts；$84.921M is not isolated GAAP realized P&L.
J1/J3
10-Q UPDATED
AUG 03
mNAV
Issuer literal and reproducible sensitivity coordinates diverge
[CONFLICT] issuer 1.0477x / extended 1.0407x; carried 0.998865412x; mechanical Basic 1.031111305x; ADSO 1.083686148x。Exact legal denominator blocked。
J1/J2/J4
CONFLICT
JUL 31
STRC DIV
Funding disclosed; execution still lacks authoritative state
[BLOCKED_SOURCE] 10-Q paid table ends June 30 / Note 15 ends July 24；later $52.4M funding is not STRC/date/holder settlement。
J1/J3
v1 PAUSED · v2 TOMBSTONED
AUG 04
10-Q
Exact Q2 10-Q reconciled
[UPDATED/HIGH] accession 0001050446-26-000044；cash/tax/stack/ATM/KPI fields promoted。Current legal denominator and July 31 execution remain blocked。
J1-J4
5e56e2027523 · TOMBSTONED / NOT RECREATED
04

止损条件

每层的 killer / replacement gate
地面 · mNAV 门
负循环是否加深？
[CONFLICT] carried-legal sensitivity 0.998865412x <1.00；issuer 1.0477x 不可覆盖分母缺口。若再一轮 stress-zone ATM 且 BPS 不修复，升级负循环审计。
一楼 · BPS 门
每股 BTC 真在增长吗？
killer 已命中。重开条件是连续两次 BPS 上升 + exact settled-share proof；一次 uptick 只是 repair。
二楼 · runway 门
senior claims 是否吞噬 common？
runway <12m、authoritative missed/unpaid/compounded distribution evidence、repeat BTC sale、sub-$100 preferred issuance 或条款恶化：全栈 killer review。
三楼 · 替代门
为什么不直接持 BTC？
mNAV 未稳定 ≥1.20，或 direct BTC 经 dilution/leverage/preferred 调整后仍更干净：维持地面。
NO-ACTION 结论
Action：prefer direct BTC；不因 $93.28、issuer 1.0477x 或 carried 0.998865412x 买 common。Evidence：[HIGH] exact SEC 10-Q 000044 + SEC 329565 + Strategy APIs；[BLOCKED_SOURCE] current legal denominator/STRC execution。Confidence：92%。Bear：premium reopening plus two BPS repairs。Killer：third BPS decline、repeat obligation-funded BTC sales、runway <12m。Next：weekly 8-K、legal cover、STRC execution evidence；不交易、不建 broker alert/order。