三层楼 · 标的看板 — THREE-FLOOR POSITION MONITOR
更新 2026-07-29 04:15 +08 · MAIN GATE ACCEPTED 05:24 +08

TESLA

TSLA / NASDAQ
约束秩序
LGJ ESSENCE

TSLA 是一台以 车辆与能源现金流供养 physical-AI 期权 的资本配置系统。Robotaxi、Optimus、AI5 与 semiconductor-fab development 已有建设里程碑，但只有可审计的单位经济、现金转换与每股归属，才能把工程进展变成股东价值。

Tesla Q2 10-Q / 8-K / IR primary · moomoo completed RTH bar · NHTSA PE25012 · hiring PDF LOW-MED / raw MISSING / 247≠241 · unit economics BLOCKED
01

监控台

当前价格 · 置信区间落点 · 楼层
$307.44
-$1.78 · -0.58%
FALLBACK
moomoo OpenD public completed RTH close · 2026-07-28 16:00 ET / 2026-07-29 04:00 +08 · $307.44 / $309.22 previous close · retrieved 04:14–04:15 +08。Price/OHLC FRESH；volume about 38.77M but post-close settlement reads still revised = CONFLICT。Baked quote is FALLBACK until shared runtime refresh；no intraday print is mixed into this decision。
当前在 $280-$388 operating-gated wait：CORE HOLD / NO-ACTION / no marginal capital。RSI14 simple 18.06 / Wilder 27.03 与距 52 周低点 +2.24% 说明超卖，不替代 Q2 clean margin、FCF 与 unit-economics gate。
Current issued-share cap*
$1.214249T
3.949547394B × $307.44 · Q2 10-Q cover shares as of 2026-07-16
TTM cash bridge
$5.762B FCF
TTM revenue/OI/NI/OCF/capex/FCF = $103.619B/$4.372B/$3.804B/$18.685B/$12.923B/$5.762B · OPM 4.22%
Technical tape · RTH / QFQ
SMA $379.98 / $397.12 / $413.43
RSI14 simple 18.06 / Wilder 27.03 · 5d -18.87% · 20d -25.35% · volume ≈0.88× / settling · QFQ
EV proxy†
$1.180067T
equity + $9.342B debt/leases - $43.524B cash/investments · 204.802× FCF
52-week raw range
$300.69 — $498.83
$307.44 = -38.37% from high / +2.24% from low · raw=QFQ · [READ][HIGH]
*Q2 10-Q cover common shares 3,949,547,394 as of 2026-07-16; diluted WA 3.540B is EPS-only. †EV proxy = issued-share cap + current/long-term debt and finance leases - cash/short-term investments. Source/as-of: Tesla Q2 10-Q filed 2026-07-23 / accepted 2026-07-22 21:02:31 ET + moomoo OpenD US.TSLA completed RTH/raw+QFQ through 2026-07-28, retrieved 2026-07-29 04:14–04:15 +08 · price FRESH / HIGH, volume CONFLICT / settlement revision, arithmetic INFERRED / HIGH。
当前落点 vs 三层楼置信区间
< $220 thesis-break / replacement · ≥ $499 de-risk review
$307.44
deep review$220-280
operating wait$280-388
re-underwrite$388-400
no new money$400-420
proof burden$420-435
core-only$435-499
$220
$280
$388
$400
$420
$435
$499
楼层
事实门
地面
经济转换失败
认知试探
一楼
只保留观察权
经营验证
二楼
cash + economics
既有核心
三楼
持有，不新增
当前
底气（估值）
11.718× sales / 277.733× OI / 319.203× NI / 64.985× OCF / 210.734× FCF
验证（市场）
超卖已验证；Q2 OI $0.398B / 1.4% OPM、FCF -$1.092B，near-killer 未清门
结论
CORE HOLD / NO-ACTION / no new marginal capital
02

核心判断

支持 / 反对证据 · 置信度
M1
招聘信号是意图雷达，不是产量或估值证明
LOW-MED
CONDITIONAL ACCEPT / FACTUAL_REFRESH only / NO_CHANGE · PDF 7pp，stated as-of 2026-07-22，metadata author Un-named / WPS 文字；241 openings 仅为 analyst-constructed fresh-stated signal，raw JSON/CSV missing。
方法
+official postings → hiring intent → filled roles → FAT/SAT/process qualification → accepted parts → assembled output → useful runtime → external customer/ROI → segment GM/FCF/per-share value
+未来 panel 保存 unique req ID / URL / first-seen / last-seen / dedupe / shared-role；岗位是 stock，不是 flow
冲突 / Gate
-role buckets 247 ≠ 241；intern 14 ≠ 15；Tesla careers 只做 qualitative confirmation，不能复现 241
-Killer：raw/reconciliation fail；duplicate/shared/non-Optimus ≥10%；60–90d repost 无设备/产出；capacity ≠ production；valuation credit 0
Assumption: jobs are a stock signal, not flow. Bear: audited unique roles plus accepted output, useful runtime and external ROI would make the current zero-credit stance too conservative.
Source/as-of: optimus-hiring-analysis-20260722.pdf · local SHA-256 bc2d0ef8…c3f55 · Tesla careers checked 2026-07-22 · Q1 SEC deck Construction/preparations only · Q2 consensus analyst consensus, not guidance · status NO_CHANGE / [READ][LOW-MED] · Q2 fact pack updated 2026-07-23；next: retain raw req IDs/URLs and audit unique roles, accepted output and ROI；no active Q2 task / no new watch。
J1
保留既有核心凸性，但 TSLA 不是任意价格的 clean value add
96% no-add
车辆、能源与 physical-AI 右尾支持继续持有；Q2 revenue beat 不能抵消 OI/FCF near-killer，边际资本继续等待 clean conversion 与可审计 unit economics。
支持
+Q2 revenue $28.236B，deliveries 480,126；energy deployment 13.5 GWh，FSD subscriptions 1.48M
+TTM revenue/OI/NI/OCF/FCF $103.619B/$4.372B/$3.804B/$18.685B/$5.762B，净现金 $34.182B
反对
-$1.214249T issued-share cap = 319.203× GAAP NI / 210.734× FCF；Q2 OI $0.398B / 1.4% OPM
-Q2 FCF -$1.092B；unit economics 与正式 revenue/margin/FCF guide BLOCKED；written capex >$25B
Action/status: CORE HOLD / NO-ACTION / no marginal capital · MAIN GATE ACCEPTED 2026-07-29 05:24 +08。Source/as-of: Q2 10-Q + Q2 Exhibit + completed OpenD July 28 close, checked 2026-07-29 04:15 +08 · PRIMARY/FRESH/HIGH。Assumption: existing core preserves right tail。Bear: Q3 clean GM ≥18%, OPM >4–5%, FCF positive and unit economics auditable。Killer: clean GM <15% two periods/guide plus cash deterioration or TTM OPM <4% and FCF <$5B while capex/R&D rise。Next: Q3/10-Q and $280/$388 completed-close review。
J2
交付是 throughput signal，clean margin 与 FCF 才是资本回报门
97%
Q2 volume beat 不能自动生成 add；10-Q 已完成验证，clean auto GM、energy GM、services GM、OI 与 FCF 是当前资本回报门。
支持
+Q2 revenue $28.236B；clean auto GM 16.3%、energy GM 20.4%、services GM 14.1%
+Q2 OCF $4.697B / capex $5.789B / FCF -$1.092B；TTM OCF $18.685B / FCF $5.762B
反对
-Q2 OI $0.398B、OPM 1.4%；energy GM 从 30.3% YoY 降至 20.4%
-10-Q written 2026 capex >$25B；H1 capex $8.282B，H2 需 >$16.718B；revenue/margin/FCF guide BLOCKED
Action/status: NO-ACTION / UPDATED / near-killer · confidence 98% HIGH。Source/as-of: Tesla Q2 10-Q/IR/8-K checked through 2026-07-29 · PRIMARY/HIGH。Assumption: Q2 is trough, not permanent break。Bear: clean auto GM ≥18%, OPM >4–5%, positive FCF and energy/services margins hold。Killer: clean GM <15% two periods/guide plus cash deterioration。Next: Q3/Q4 owner-earnings conversion。
J3
TSLA 直接持有 SpaceX；必须按 related-party 资本配置审计
96%
SPCX 的公开暴露不等于 TSLA 没有 SpaceX optionality；Q1 10-Q 显示直接投资与交易，但应拆分估值 mark、收入/成本与 TSLA operating earnings。
支持
+Q1 10-Q：SpaceX investment $2.002B、持股 <1%
+Q1 SpaceX related-party revenue/cost $87M/$65M
反对
-少数股权、fair-value marks 与运营协同不等于可控现金流
-SpaceX fab：CONFLICT；source qualifier BLOCKED_SOURCE；terminal state BLOCKED；IP、supply priority、unit economics 尚未披露
Action/status: NO-ACTION / NO_CHANGE · confidence 96% HIGH。Source/as-of: Tesla Q1 10-Q + Q2 10-Q, delayed-period facts checked through 2026-07-29 +08 · PRIMARY/HIGH。Assumption: fair-value marks and related-party flows do not equal TSLA-controlled operating cash。Bear: independently audited fab/IP economics and per-share returns exceed governance discount。Killer: allocation or marks impair per-share cash without matching owner earnings。Next: next filing with stake, related-party and fab economics。
J4
physical-AI milestones 真实，股东经济归属仍未完成证明
95%
Robotaxi、Optimus、AI5 与 semiconductor-fab development 已有活动证据，但不是收入、margin 或 owner earnings；单位经济与 TSLA per-share ownership 仍 BLOCKED。
支持
+Robotaxi paid activity/city expansion、Cybercab production、Optimus line installation 已披露
+Q2 R&D $2.371B +49%；H1 R&D $4.317B +44%，建设强度真实
反对
-Robotaxi revenue/mile、empty miles、utilization、assistance、loss/fleet denominator 均未披露
-Optimus external units/customer/ASP/runtime/ROI BLOCKED；hiring PDF raw missing / 247≠241 / valuation credit 0
Action/status: NO-ACTION / activity VALIDATED / economics BLOCKED · confidence 97% HIGH for evidence boundary。Source/as-of: Q2 10-Q/Exhibit checked 2026-07-29; official milestones PRIMARY/HIGH; hiring/procurement signals LOW-MED/BLOCKED_SOURCE。Assumption: activity is option value until auditable economics and per-share capture。Bear: paid-mile economics and external Optimus ROI become auditable。Killer: two result cycles without economics while spend rises。Next: Q3/10-Q and official unit-economics disclosure。
J5
治理与 contingent SBC 是每股价值门，不应被叙事遮蔽
94%
CEO awards、related-party allocation 和可能稀释必须与 operating thesis 分账；contingent award amounts 不是当前 liability，但会改变 per-share economics。
支持
+Q2 SBC $1.151B / +81% YoY；H1 $2.181B / +81%；CEO-award SBC Q2 $267M / H1 $527M
+probable-milestone unrecognized CEO SBC $9.82B over estimated 9.2 years
反对
-$105.82B-$120.37B not-probable milestone SBC is contingent, not current liability
-若 realized milestone value 远超 dilution，治理成本可能被 operating upside 覆盖
Action/status: NO-ACTION / UPDATED · confidence 96% HIGH。Source/as-of: Tesla Q2 10-Q filed 2026-07-23 / accepted 2026-07-22 21:02:31 ET · PRIMARY/HIGH。Assumption: contingent SBC is not current liability but dilution reduces per-share cash。Bear: realized value exceeds dilution and governance remains disciplined。Killer: expense/share count rises without matching owner earnings。Next: Q3 10-Q award probability, SBC and issued shares。
03

拐点与发布

可执行 tracker · owner · state
UPDATED
财报
Q2 2026 results + filed 10-Q
Revenue $28.236B；OI $0.398B / 1.4% OPM；clean auto GM 16.3%；energy/services GM 20.4%/14.1%；FCF -$1.092B；written 2026 capex >$25B PRIMARY；unit economics 与 revenue/margin/FCF guide BLOCKED
→ J1/J2/J4/J5
system review · no active task · MAIN GATE ACCEPTED
12h
NHTSA
PE25012 status / scope / recall
41-row official baseline；close/campaign blank；July 29 waiter exit 75 = no change；fail-closed
→ J1/J4
watch:63eedc270b6c · existing
Q3
Robotaxi
Paid miles → auditable economics
revenue/mile、empty miles、utilization、remote assistance、loss/fleet denominator；Q2 unit economics BLOCKED，next review Q3 results
→ J1/J4
next review · no new watch
07/09
Optimus
Supplier-capacity report · UNVERIFIED
LatePost unnamed sources；capacity ≠ binding PO ≠ output/sales；supplier names：source qualifier BLOCKED_SOURCE；terminal state BLOCKED；source boundary retained after Q2
→ J4
NO_CHANGE · no new watch
07/22
Optimus
M1 hiring signal · CONDITIONAL ACCEPT
241 stated openings；role buckets 247≠241，intern 14≠15，raw JSON/CSV missing；意图雷达 only，valuation credit 0；Q2 fact pack reconciled
→ J4
NO_CHANGE · no new watch
08/31
法律
FSD consumer class-certification appeal
oral argument scheduled 2026-08-31；读取官方结果与 material exposure，不自动交易
→ J1/J4/J5
event review · no new watch
Q3+
治理
AI-hardware acquisition + CEO awards
counterparty/full economics：source qualifier BLOCKED_SOURCE；terminal state BLOCKED；按 realized/probable/not-probable SBC 分层；next official filing
→ J4/J5
NO_CHANGE · no new watch
04

止损条件

每一层的 killer condition
地面 · 汽车现金门
「volume 是否以 economics 为代价？」
clean auto GM ex credits <15% 连续两期/guide 且 cash deterioration，hard re-underwrite。
一楼 · 资本门
「投入是否穿透 owner earnings？」
TTM OPM 4.22% / FCF $5.762B 仍在硬线之上但 buffer 薄；若 OPM <4% 且 FCF <$5B、capex/R&D 继续上升，禁止新增。
二楼 · 安全/经济门
「physical AI 是否可审计？」
PE25012 出现 material recall/restriction，或 Robotaxi/Optimus/AI5/fab 无 TSLA economics，降级。
三楼 · 每股价值门
「核心资产是否仍是最优结构？」
related-party/SBC dilution materially impairs per-share cash，或出现更优 core replacement asset，执行 replacement review。
NO-ACTION 结论
维持 TSLA 三楼核心分类，CORE HOLD / NO-ACTION：不新增边际资本，也不因超卖或单一价格线交易。$307.44 距 52 周低点仅 +2.24%，但 mechanical cap $1.214249T = 210.734× TTM FCF；Q2 OI $0.398B / 1.4% OPM、clean auto GM 16.3%、FCF -$1.092B，且 filed 10-Q 书面预计 2026 capex >$25B。Robotaxi/Optimus activity VALIDATED，unit economics BLOCKED；M1 hiring PDF LOW-MED / valuation credit 0。Source/as-of: Tesla Q2 10-Q/8-K/IR + completed OpenD July 28 bar + NHTSA official check, 2026-07-29 04:15 +08；market FRESH，volume CONFLICT / settlement revision；confidence 96% HIGH for no-add / 65% MED hold-vs-de-risk。Bear：Q3 clean auto GM ≥18%、OPM >4–5%、FCF 转正且 AI economics 可审计。Killer：clean GM <15% 两期/guide + cash deterioration；TTM OPM <4% / FCF <$5B while capex/R&D rise；material NHTSA/DOJ restriction；SBC/related-party leakage。Next：completed close $280/$388 review、Q3/10-Q、2026-08-31 legal event、paid economics、NHTSA change。MAIN GATE ACCEPTED。