三层楼 · 标的看板 — THREE-FLOOR POSITION MONITOR

Q2 Main Gate · 2026-08-05 · CONFLICT / UPDATED / NO-ACTION / LOCAL ONLY

SPCX

SPACEX CLASS A COMMON / NASDAQ

核心约束
SECURITY ≠ COMPANY

Q2 revenue $7.814B（+91.94% YoY）很亮，derived FCF −$15.950B 更硬。AI Adjusted EBITDA +$1.146B 与 GAAP operating loss −$1.257B、capex $15.828B 同时成立；别把 non-GAAP 光泽当现金。公司机器过，证券交换不过；当前否决顺序是 cash conversion → per-share capture → price paid → ability generation。MAIN GATE CONFLICT / NO-ACTION。

SEC filed 10-Q + furnished Item 2.02/S-8 · official Q4 Inc replay captions · OpenD completed pre-results RTH · volume CONFLICT · AH not current

监控台

价格 · 估值数学 · 楼层

$125.33

+$10.80 / +9.43%

FALLBACK

OpenD refreshed 2026-08-05 08:00:38 +08 · 2026-08-04 completed pre-results unadjusted RTH O/H/L/C $117.33/$126.71/$115.72/$125.33。Volume CONFLICT / DELAYED/MUTABLE：RTH minute 80,312,636；AH minute 17,420,696；mutable K_DAY 144,130,031。AH completed 20:00 ET O/H/L/C $116.07/$116.0838/$115.88/$115.97，FRESH / SESSION-COMPLETE / PERMISSION-UNVERIFIED / MED-HIGH，never the current completed RTH close。

FALLBACK · all $63/$80/$100/$135/$160/$175.50 bands are FROZEN LEGACY BEHAVIOR GUARDRAILS / NOT Q2 VALUATION-CERTIFIED / NEVER ACTION OR ORDER：completed-RTH research cues only。SEC current outstanding = 13.1818B。

BASIC OUTSTANDING CAP

$1.652T

13.1818B exact Jul28 outstanding · not diluted

CONSERVATIVE BASIC EV / TTM SALES

69.06x

$1.591427T EV / $23.044B TTM

BASIC EV / H1 ANNUALIZED SALES

63.62x

$25.016B annualized; Q2 Adj EBITDA annualized 112.45x (non-GAAP)

VALUATION STATE

FALLBACK DERIVED

quote × SEC basic outstanding less fixed Q2 cash adjustment; provider float rejected

当前落点 vs 三层楼置信区间 · FROZEN LEGACY BEHAVIOR GUARDRAILS

FALLBACK · $125.33 · FROZEN LEGACY BEHAVIOR GUARDRAILS / NOT Q2 VALUATION-CERTIFIED / NEVER ACTION OR ORDER

$125.33

thesis break<$63

valuation$63-80

better odds$80-100

current$100-135

observe$135-160

no chase$160-175.5

post-test≥$175.5

$63

$80

$100

$135

$160

$175.5

heat

楼层

信用审计

地面

cash + supply + denominator

当前

支持验证

一楼

cash + absorption

资本支持

二楼

per-share accretion

长期核心

三楼

not current

底气（估值）

basic cap $1.652T；conservative basic EV $1.591T；EV/TTM 69.06x；FD CONFLICT

验证（市场）

Q2 FILED；Q4 Inc captions MED-HIGH；RTH pre-results；volume/supply/FD PENDING-CONFLICT

结论

MAIN GATE CONFLICT / UPDATED / NO-ACTION / LOCAL ONLY

核心判断

支持 / 反对证据 · 置信度

Connectivity hard ground

94%

Q2 revenue/op income/Adj EBITDA $4.291B/$1.656B/$2.597B；12.0M subscribers；ARPU $66。

支持

+Revenue/op income/Adj EBITDA sequential growth 31.75%/39.39%/24.44%；subs +16.50%。

反对

−ARPU flat q/q、down from $85 y/y；segment EBITDA 不是可自由分配现金。

AI/Space cash burden

98%

Q2 AI op loss -$1.257B / Adj EBITDA +$1.146B / capex $15.828B；derived consolidated FCF −$15.950B。

支持

+AI revenue +213.08% q/q；Q2 consolidated op loss narrowed to −$143M。

反对

−Capex 7.59x OCF；positive non-GAAP EBITDA 不是 cash profitability。Q3 cash gate 只以 filed OCF/CapEx/FCF 复核，不接受价格或 ARR 文案替代。

current security entry

95%

basic cap $1.652T；conservative basic EV/TTM sales 69.06x、EV/H1 annualized sales 63.62x、EV/annualized Q2 Adj EBITDA 112.45x（non-GAAP）；RSI14 63.78 不能替代 cash、supply 与 per-share proof。

支持

+较 IPO −7.16%、较 high −44.46%，仍在 frozen legacy $100-$135 research guardrail。

反对

−EV/TTM 69.06x、derived FCF −$15.950B、fully diluted bridge CONFLICT、actual supply 未知，不构成 margin of safety。

capital claims

95%

Debt principal $38.433B；Q2 interest $629M；Cursor $60B / pre-close seven-day VWAP 仍 AGREED / NOT CLOSED；Note 16 commitments $27.955B are not debt.

支持

+Cash + current marketable securities $100.009B；notes bridge repaid。

反对

−年化 coupon $1.46375B；Cursor closing/VWAP/actual issuance 未知；commitments require cash, but must not be mechanically added to EV。

denominator/governance/supply

80%

SEC Jul28 exact denominator 13,181,779,945；A one vote / B ten；S-8 filings are supply-watch inputs, with no automatic A+B denominator adjustment without reconciliation.

支持

+Filed 10-Q cover supports 13,181,779,945 exact current outstanding Class A+B；B holds 87.70% of A+B votes by calculation。

反对

−052712 136.950M resale covers already-acquired shares (potential secondary supply); 052715 0.295M Mesh covers future exercise/settlement shares (potential future issuance). Neither proves sale/current issuance or is additive to A+B without reconciliation; Aug 6/Aug 10 timing and actual flow remain BLOCKED_SOURCE。

Flight 13/V3

82%

7/24 在 suborbital test 中部署 20 颗 Starlink V3 test payload；它们按计划再入烧毁，没有进入 operational constellation。

支持

+20/20 deployment、RF/laser communication 与 telemetry 支持 payload deployment path。

反对

−非 operational constellation deployment；不证明 subscribers、ARPU、revenue、margin 或 monetization。

拐点与发布

agreement ≠ close · date ≠ result

AUG 04

Item 2.02 results → filed 10-Q

8-K 0001628280-26-052515 Acceptance Time 16:01:05 ET；10-Q 0001628280-26-052535 16:05:48 ET；after close and baseline advanced；Q2 watcher is failed/fail-closed

J1-J5

watch:9e17734efdc3

AUG 06–10

LOCK

First Earnings Release timing conflict

operative clause implies Aug 6；public-sale summary table can imply Aug 10；up to ~911.5M ≠ actual eligibility/transfer/sale；FAIL-CLOSED

J3/J5

MAIN GATE

0 / 10

PRICE

$175.50 five-of-ten test

0/10 through 2026-08-04; under the candidate fail-closed Aug-6 interpretation the condition is mathematically impossible; legal timing remains CONFLICT; price itself is not a release.

J3/J5

CONFLICT

AUG 04

CALL

Q4 Inc official event replay/VTT — captions, not transcript

PRIMARY REPLAY CAPTIONS / FRESH / MED-HIGH; management claimed <1 year payback at 26:12–26:17, CFO reinforced at 37:15–37:19; CFO said Q3/Q4 capex "similar to Q2" at 36:48–36:59. $100B ARR is not FY revenue; formal company-corrected and Seeking Alpha transcripts unavailable.

J2/J4

MED-HIGH

Q3 10-Q

CASH

Q3 cash gate — analyst register, not management guidance

Assume Q3 cash CapEx = Q2 $18.369B. G0 FCF <−$11.9625B / OCF <$6.4065B: no-action; G1 −$11.9625B~−$7.975B / $6.4065B~$10.394B: direction only; G2 −$7.975B~−$3.9875B / $10.394B~$14.3815B: reopen valuation model only; G3 −$3.9875B~$0 / $14.3815B~$18.369B and G4 FCF ≥$0 / OCF ≥$18.369B: cash pass, then separately re-test valuation/FD/supply. Source/as-of: filed Q2 10-Q PRIMARY/FRESH/HIGH, 2026-08-05; equal-capex premise is an analyst assumption, not forecast. Base judgment: OCF $3.5B–$5.5B / CapEx $17B–$19B / FCF −$11.5B~−$15.5B；cumulative G1/G2/G3/positive-FCF probabilities 45%/20%/7%/2%。Confidence: threshold math HIGH; base judgment MED；not management guidance。

J2/J3

FILED PRIMARY

AUG 04

S-8

resale registration / Mesh assumed awards

052712: 136.950M already-acquired resale / potential secondary; 052715: 0.295M future exercise/settlement / potential future issuance. Neither proves sale/current issuance or is additive to A+B without reconciliation.

J4/J5

SUPPLY WATCH

PENDING

8-K

Cursor closing / shares / financing

filed Q2 10-Q still says expected Q3；closing/VWAP/actual Class A issuance unknown；corporate watch not recertified here

watch:c3925f51184f

AUG 20 ET

DAY70

First fixed supply path

Supply term date Aug 20 ET；research review next 2026-08-21 09:30 +08；active / never_run / read-back only / candidate-only。

J3/J4

task:db385ef409e1

DEC 08 ET

DAY180

180-day pool remainder

Supply term date Dec 8 ET；research review next 2026-12-09 09:30 +08；active / never_run / read-back only / candidate-only。

J3/J4

task:ac88d1d0a3a3

止损条件

每层 killer / replacement gate

地面 · data 门

denominator / bar / monitor 对吗？

vendor float、incomplete bar 或 monitor state 被误写成 valid/live：立即停止 valuation 与行动。

一楼 · price 门

低价有 cash / supply proof 吗？

Q2 cash gap 已见；没有 actual eligible sale 与 durable absorption，价格只是 re-underwrite。

二楼 · cash 门

Connectivity 能覆盖 AI/Space 吗？

Q2 capex 7.59x OCF；没有 Q3 improvement 与 per-share return bridge，禁止升级。

三楼 · governance 门

minority holder 能获得价值吗？

Class B control、related-party 或 capital allocation 破坏每股经济性，放弃 core-candidate thesis。

NO-ACTION 结论

MAIN GATE CONFLICT / UPDATED / NO-ACTION / LOCAL ONLY；no new exposure / no chase。Evidence / source / as-of：filed Q2 10-Q 0001628280-26-052535（accepted 2026-08-04 16:05:48 ET，PRIMARY/FRESH/HIGH）、Item 2.02/Ex.99.1、official replay captions MED-HIGH 与 Aug-4 completed RTH DIRECT/FRESH/HIGH；截至 2026-08-05。Key assumption：Connectivity cash 最终覆盖 AI/Space、debt 与 dilution，并成为每股现金。Confidence：82% MED-HIGH decision gate，不是收益概率。Q2 headline 变强，现金门反而更清楚：derived FCF −$15.950B，AI capex $15.828B。Bear case：Q3 cash conversion 快于预期、Cursor dilution 有限且实际 supply 被吸收；即使如此仍须 valuation/FD/supply 三门同时重审。Killer：不可重复营运资本撑起现金、CapEx base 改变、Cursor/outstanding 或 actual supply 改变、法律/来源被纠正，或把 cash pass 误标为自动 add。Next triggers：8/5 RTH、8/11 post-event five-day、Q3 filed cash gate、eligible transfer → actual sale → absorption、Cursor closing。价格只触发 re-underwrite；任何单一价格或 Q3 cash pass 都不授权 action。