三层楼 · 标的看板 — THREE-FLOOR POSITION MONITOR

更新 2026-07-29 04:28 +08 · MAIN GATE ACCEPTED 05:41 +08

Yubico

YUBICO AB / NASDAQ STOCKHOLM

约束秩序
LGJ ESSENCE

硬件安全是稀缺能力，不是订单豁免权。SEK 61.40 已从三月低点反弹 107.8%，Q1 organic bookings 却仍 -14.4%；产品与 FIPS 是分发 option，Q2 才是经营证据。

SYSTEM REVIEW / DATA CONTRACT / PRICE BEHAVIOR · Nasdaq Nordic / Yubico / ECB / NIST · runtime quote is context only

监控台

完成价格 · 技术面 · 混合日期估值 · 楼层

SEK 61.40

-1.04% · completed close

FALLBACK

Nasdaq Nordic TX3772158 · 2026-07-28 18:00 CEST completed close · DIRECT / fresh completed；baked value is fallback only · runtime labels LIVE/CACHE/STALE/FALLBACK

55–78 current observation：等待 Q2 organic bookings、subscription、EBIT 与 cash；不追反弹。

Ordinary market cap / EV proxy

SEK 5.307B / 4.362B

86,426,882 ordinary shares；EV subtracts Q1 net cash 945.1M；C shares separately disclosed

Share basis · 2026-05-29

86.427M / 88.722M

ordinary / total issued；total includes 2.295M repurchased C shares for incentive delivery

Completed Stockholm bar · 2026-07-28

H/L/C 62.45 / 60.55 / 61.40

Nasdaq P1 has no open field；Yahoo fallback open 62.00，but its volume 91,524 conflicts with Nasdaq 98,577 and is excluded · no intraday bar promoted

Technical read [DERIVED/HIGH]

RSI14 52.41 · ATR14 2.91

SMA20 61.20 · SMA50 59.98 · SMA200 66.41 · volume 0.59× 20d mean

LTM valuation · mixed-date

EV/S 2.10× · EV/EBIT 35.7×

P/E 54.0× · Q1 net cash / market cap 17.8% · price-derived fields recompute；Q1/LTM denominators frozen through 2026-03-31

Cash conversion · definition guard

239.0M / 4.5%

LTM OCF 297.3 less investing outflow 58.3；analyst-defined cash bridge/yield，not issuer FCF；Q1 WC release 78.2M

Q1 demand · issuer reported

organic bookings -14.4%

sales organic -10.2% · ARR YoY +11.0% · ARR organic QoQ +4.4% · subscription sales share 18.9%

Q1 EBIT / savings semantics

14.9M / 3.1%

EBIT / margin；21.0M reorganization expense；95M is annualized gross savings, simple fully phased quarter = 23.75M

当前落点 vs 三层楼置信区间

visual scale 25–115 SEK · contract tails unbounded · price opens review only

SEK 61.40

audit<40

re-underwrite40–55

wait55–78

proof78–95

heat≥95

115

楼层

观察 / 不动作

地面

Q2 五项 Gate 未闭合

当前

重审 / 证据门

一楼

organic + ARR + EBIT + cash + mix

验证 / 连续性

二楼

两季 organic bookings 转正

长期 / 目标桥

三楼

20% EBIT 路径与防御性同时成立

底气（估值）

净现金 945.1M，但 depressed EBIT 上 EV/EBIT 仍 35.7×

验证（市场）

+107.8% off low；close 高于 SMA20/50、低于 SMA200，量能 0.59×

结论

current observation / no chase

核心判断

支持 / 反对证据 · thesis 四态审计

High-assurance niche is real; passkey monopoly is not

75%

Yubico 的护城河集中于 attested、device-bound、regulated/privileged use cases，而非所有 consumer/enterprise passkeys。

支持

+YubiKey 5 FIPS certificate #5291；YubiHSM 2 #5302 Overall Level 3

+Microsoft recommends hardware keys for highly regulated/elevated users

反方

-Synced passkeys are a low-cost alternative for most users

-Google Titan and other hardware vendors contest the device-bound niche

Subscription is validated, but the offset remains incomplete

65%

Q1 subscription sales and organic ARR grew, while subscription bookings fell and reported ARR shrank QoQ.

已验证

+subscription sales 90.6M, +13.8%, 18.9% of sales

+ARR 383.5M, +11.0% YoY；organic QoQ +4.4%

待验证

-subscription bookings 47.3M, -18.9%, only 12.1% of bookings

-reported ARR QoQ -1.9% after FX -6.3%

“美国公共部门坏了”已被更精确的需求分层取代

85%

FY25 的政府裁员/停摆影响与 Q1 public-sector relative outperformance 可以同时为真；当前核心未知是大型企业 deal conversion。

已修正

+Q1 public sector was strong in Americas sales and largest perpetual-bookings contributor

+EMEA defense demand remained strong

风险

-FY25 government layoffs/shutdowns were noticeable

-Larger enterprise deals continue taking longer; exact segment bookings undisclosed

Current targets are live, severely off-track—and CMD is not a promise

95%

2024 five-year goals are average annual net-sales growth 25% and EBIT margin 20%；old “void / CMD reset” claim is invalidated.

直接证据

+Current issuer target page and AR25 repeat the goals

+CMD page confirms 2026-11-19 Stockholm + webcast

缺口

-FY25 sales -4.7%, EBIT margin 9.0%；Q1 margin 3.1%

-CMD agenda and speakers remain pending; no target reset promised

拐点与发布

event · operating signal · Harness truth

07-21

PRODUCT

YubiKey 5.8 general availability

CTAP 2.3 and authorization/signing extension preview；monetization pending

J1/J2

released

08-06

Q2 2026 five-gate review

Official date only；task:36048a9c2ff3 @ 17:00 +08；same task repaired in place；active / never-run / active session

J1–J4

READY

09-22

FIPS

FIPS 140-2 new-system transition completed

NIST says 140-2 modules move historical after 09-21；procurement conversion still must be shown

manual

11-05

Q3 2026 report

Second-quarter continuity test if Q2 stabilizes；no task created in this candidate

J2/J3

scheduled

11-19

CMD

Capital Markets Day · Stockholm + webcast

Agenda/speakers/venue/registration later；new targets are not promised

agenda pending

止损条件

每一层的失败标准

地面 · 需求门

organic bookings 连续失速？

连续两季 ≤-10% 即 thesis-survival audit；价格跌破 40 也不自动加仓。

一楼 · 订阅门

recurring offset 失效？

reported 与 organic ARR growth 均低于 10% 连续两季，停止“订阅抵消波动”叙事。

二楼 · 盈利门

95M savings 被伪装成利润？

重组后 EBIT <25M 且 GM <74%，或把 annualized gross savings 写成单季 EBIT，直接失败。

三楼 · 生存门

现金缓冲开始失真？

净现金 <700M 且 LTM OCF 非正；或混用 ordinary/total-issued share basis，重做全套估值。

NO-ACTION 结论

YUBICO = floor 0 ground watch. SEK 61.40 falls in [55,78) current observation；Q2 organic bookings、ARR/subscription、EBIT、cash 与 deal conversion 拥有下一次决策权。MAIN GATE ACCEPTED / NO-ACTION。