三层楼 · 标的看板 — THREE-FLOOR POSITION MONITOR
更新 2026-07-30 13:43 Asia/Shanghai

MSFT

MICROSOFT / NASDAQ
约束秩序
LGJ ESSENCE

Q4 证明了 Microsoft 的 企业 AI 控制面与需求，没证明 owner earnings。Azure、Copilot 和 ex-OpenAI RPO 全过门，FY26 FCF 却下降；盘后把估值推到约 47.1× FCF，结论只能是 NO-ACTION / no chase。

Microsoft FY26 Q4 IR / SEC 10-K · official transcript/metrics · moomoo OpenD · Nasdaq public · source/as-of/freshness explicit
01

监控台

完成收盘 · 盘后冲突 · 估值 · 楼层
$390.54
-$2.81 · -0.71%
COMPLETED / CROSS-CHECKED
2026-07-29 regular close · moomoo OpenD + Nasdaq public · retrieved 2026-07-30 13:43 +08 · static fallback snapshot, not live
After-hours: Nasdaq $425.01 vs moomoo $425.21 · DELAYED / CONFLICT. Nasdaq extended payload uses $393.35 as the change reference while the completed close is $390.54；percentage move withheld.
Completed bars: SMA20 389.8135 · SMA50 397.8533 · SMA200 432.7697 · RSI14 50.0350 · ATR14 11.8803（Wilder; through July 29）
Issued-share cap
$2.900T
7,425,545,491 × $390.54 · SEC 10-K cover · exact issued basis
FY26 P / FCF
43.2916×
FCF $66.987B · yield 2.3099% · AH sensitivity 47.1126×
价格落点 vs review bands
> $555 no-safety-margin / no-add
AH $425.01
bear audit<$330
re-underwrite$330-350
tape audit$350-370
cash gate$370-390
wait$390-420
proof required$420-480
no chase$480-555
$330
$350
$370
$390
$420
$480
$555
楼层
事实门
地面
price-only invalid
秩序候选
一楼
观察，不追
当前
共识验证
二楼
需 cash + unit economics
核心承诺
三楼
当前不在此层
经营
Revenue $90.007B · Azure +43% cc · Cloud GM 65% · ex-OAI RPO +25%
现金
FY26 FCF $66.987B · FCF/OCF 36.62% · cash PP&E/OCF 63.38%
结论
UPDATED / NO-ACTION / no chase
02

Q4 Gate

公司披露 · GAAP · 推导 · UNKNOWN
G1
Demand / control plane PASS
93%
Revenue $90.007B、Azure +43% cc、Cloud GM 65%、ex-OpenAI RPO +25% 同时过门；需求不是单一 OpenAI 客户幻觉。
支持 · Microsoft IR/SEC · 2026-06-30 · PRIMARY / FRESH
+Revenue 高于 guide high $2.207B；Q1 FY27 Azure guide ~45% cc
+all sequential RPO growth from customers outside frontier-model companies
反对 · same transcript
-需求仍超过 capacity；增长要靠更大资本基座兑现
Assumption: demand is durable and collectible. Bear: capacity adds outrun paid workload. Killer: Azure cc <35% two quarters/guide. Next: FY27 Q1. No-action: operating pass is not a buy signal.
G2
Owner-earnings bridge PENDING / COUNTER-EVIDENCE
89%
FY26 OCF 大增，但 cash PP&E 增得更快：FCF $66.987B、同比 -6.46%。Q4 现金比例几乎亲吻旧 killer。
支持 · IR/10-K · PRIMARY / DERIVED / HIGH
+OCF $182.935B；Q4 Cloud GM 65%；旧 paired killer 未触发
反对 · IR/10-K/call
-cash PP&E $115.948B；FY27 capex grows；Q1 >$50B
-building life 15→25 years + lease classification reduce comparability, not economic cost
Assumption: mature capacity earns above full cash/lease cost. Bear: reported margins hide cohort economics. Killer: FCF/OCF <35% with cash PP&E/OCF >65%, or accounting-only capex relief. Next: Q1 cash/lease/depreciation bridge. No-action: no floor promotion.
G3
Copilot tax base PARTIAL PASS
82%
Paid seats >30M；net adds >2× sequential；conversations/user nearly doubled yoy；premium Copilot/E5/E7 drove directional ARPU growth。
支持 · official transcript · PRIMARY / HIGH
+>50k-seat customers +7× yoy；majority-IW deployments +75% qoq
未知 · official disclosure absent
-renewal、NRR、discounted ARPU、product GM 仍 UNKNOWN
Assumption: usage survives renewal at attractive margin. Bear: bundles inflate seats and directional ARPU. Killer: two-disclosure monetization stall. Next: Q1 renewal/NRR bridge. No-action: distribution ≠ durable tax base.
G4
OpenAI economics QUANTIFIED / STILL PARTIAL
91%
10-K 首次把相关性量化：约 25% as-converted interest；FY26 related-party revenue $24.1B、AR $6.0B；$13.0B commitment / $11.9B funded。
支持 · SEC 10-K · PRIMARY / FRESH / HIGH
+IP/revenue-share/shareholder relevance is material and disclosed
反对 / 未知 · SEC + Apr-27 terms
-$6.530B pre-tax OpenAI gain is non-operating dilution accounting
-margin、collection timing、workload split、capped-payment NPV UNKNOWN；IP non-exclusive / any-cloud
Assumption: AR converts and partnership stays useful without exclusivity. Bear: concentration and bargaining risk rise with revenue. Killer: material collection/term/workload damage. Next: Q1 10-Q. No-action: OpenAI gain excluded from operating earnings.
03

事件与触发

完成事件 · 下一份证据
2026-07-29
Q4
FY2026 Q4 results / webcast / 8-K / 10-K
Microsoft IR · SEC 10-K · COMPLETED / REVIEWED
G1-G4
task:82a88c1e322d · one-shot last_status succeeded · next null
FY27 Q1
CASH
Azure ~45% cc · Cloud GM ~65% · capex >$50B
Reconcile OCF, cash PP&E, finance/operating leases, depreciation and Copilot renewal/NRR. No new automation created.
G2/G3/G4
manual next trigger · PENDING
OCT 2026
CMA
UK business-software SMS proposed decision
CMA official case · designation alone is not a remedy or liability finding
G1/G4
watch:20f54e8e5d15 · enabled/running · unchanged
04

止损条件

bear · killer · no-action
需求门
「需求广度会断吗？」
Azure cc <35% 两期/guide，或 ex-OpenAI demand break：hard review。
现金门
「利润回到 owner earnings 吗？」
Cloud GM <62%，或 FCF/OCF <35% 且 cash PP&E/OCF >65%；accounting-only capex relief 不算改善。
变现门
「Copilot 真形成税基吗？」
renewal/NRR/ARPU/usage/margin 两次披露停滞：阻断上楼。
控制门
「OpenAI / CMA / trust 会反噬吗？」
collection/terms/workload、CMA remedy 或 identity/security failure 实质损伤：降级审计。
NO-ACTION
MSFT 保持一楼观察。Q4 operating gates passed；cash gate remains open。Completed $390.54 与 conflicted AH $425.01/$425.21 都只改变 review urgency，不授权 floor、capital、broker alert 或 order。