三层楼 · 标的看板 — THREE-FLOOR POSITION MONITOR
更新 2026-07-30 18:23 · POST-CLOSE REVIEW · NO-ACTION

005930KS

SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS / 005930:KRX
约束秩序
LGJ ESSENCE

2Q26 初步官方包已读：DART exact sales/OP/PBT/NI/归母 NI ₩171.4995T/₩89.4924T/₩94.4398T/₩71.6245T/₩71.2695T；DS ₩127.5T/₩89.2T；Q2 CapEx ₩16.8T，cash PP&E ₩14.11T，closing PP&E ₩224.372T，净现金 ₩167.5903T。Q3 HBM4/DRAM/NAND 是产品指标，不是公司级 guidance。

Samsung 2Q26 IR presentation/replay + FSS/DART 00077/00103/00137 + disclosure 84735 · preliminary before external review · bonus accrual timing raises Q3 COGS risk · no discrete numeric consolidated Q3 sales/OP/EPS/CapEx guidance · task:a575d84fa54c completed/disabled read-only · July 30 KRX-supplied regular close via Naver fallback · NXT excluded · BLOCKED_SOURCE visible
01

监控台

当前价格 · 置信区间落点 · 楼层
₩207K
-₩1.5K · -0.72%
FALLBACK
Naver page · KRX regular close 2026-07-30 15:30 KST · checked 18:01 +08 · page states KRX supplies data · completed regular / vendor fallback / MED-HIGH · NXT excluded
₩207K 已落入 180K-220K bear-stress review；Q2 DS/cash gates 已通过，但 allocation/Foundry gates 未通过。July-18 per-share anchors 因漏计 preferred 而 INVALIDATED / CONFLICTED SHARE DENOMINATOR；fair value BLOCKED，映射为 NO-ACTION / no chase。
Issued-common cap
₩1,210.18T
₩207K × 5.846B common shares
估值诊断
13.85% net cash/cap
Q2 net cash · mixed-scope diagnostic
当前落点 vs 10 档执行区间
轨道显示域 ₩160K-₩400K；开口尾档以表格为准
₩207K
deep model<180
bear stress180-220
add-back220-240
blocked240-242
risk242-260
hold260-285
proof285-300
no chase300-330
bull review330-380
blocked≥380
₩160K
₩220K
₩280K
₩340K
₩400K
轨道按 ₩160K-₩400K 线性定位；`<180K` 与 `≥380K` 是开口尾档。任何价格只触发对应研究动作，不授权订单。
<₩180Kdeep-model audit；MoS not proven，thesis intact 才复核
₩180K-₩220Kbear-stress review；重跑 SOTP + memory-cycle 情景 · 当前 ₩207K
₩220K-₩240Kadd-back review；只在 operating gates 通过后
₩240K-₩242KNO-RULE / BLOCKED_SOURCE；默认 no action
₩242K-₩260Krisk review / patience
₩260K-₩285Kyellow hold；no marginal capital
₩285K-₩300Kproof gap；NO-ACTION / no chase
₩300K-₩330Kno-chase / de-risk review
₩330K-₩380Kbull-case-priced review
≥₩380KNO-RULE / BLOCKED_SOURCE；默认 no chase
楼层
破坏 / 只审计
地面
cycle/thesis break
观察 / 小卫星
一楼
HBM proof; segment blocked
当前
验证 / 卫星
二楼
segment + cash pass
核心 / 长期
三楼
not current
底气（估值）
fair value BLOCKED · share denominator
验证（市场）
bear-stress · only 7.66% above MA200
结论
small satellite · no action
02

核心判断

支持 / 反对证据 · 置信度
J1
强 earnings 已证，segment 质量未证
88%
2Q DART exact sales/OP/PBT ₩171.4995T/₩89.4924T/₩94.4398T（OPM 52.1823%；原 guide implied 52.2807%，低 9.84bp）；DS ₩127.5T/₩89.2T（margin 69.96%）；Q2 CapEx ₩16.8T vs cash PP&E ₩14.11T；OCF/PP&E 7.4472×、净现金 ₩167.5903T。Memory OP 与 Foundry P&L 仍未披露。
支持
+1Q DS revenue ₩81.7T / OP ₩53.7T
+1Q net cash ₩119.24T
反对
-Memory OP / Foundry P&L / external review = BLOCKED_SOURCE
-H1 bonus accrual ≈10.5% of H1 OP, partly capitalized in WIP; Q3 COGS timing risk
J2
HBM thesis 已前进，不等于份额已证
86%
官方 replay `00:38:01–00:39:15`：Q3 HBM4 sales `>3× QoQ`、HBM4 占 H2 HBM revenue mix `>60%`、2027 supply agreements 已签；HBM share “broadly in line” with DRAM share 只是定性 outlook。customer allocation/数字份额、named customer 与 dated HBM4E mass-production timing 仍 BLOCKED_SOURCE。
支持
+HBM4 commercial shipment; Vera Rubin named in Q1
+HBM4E samples shipped May 29
反对
-25-28% share remains local hypothesis
J3
Foundry 仍是 option + cash-burn 风险
76%
官方 replay `01:03:18.8–01:04:22.6` 说 all-node utilization YoY 改善、8nm-and-below full utilization、first-gen 2nm mass production、second-gen ramp 与 yield optimization；这是 issuer wording，不是 numeric economics。internal base-die、major customers、unnamed wins、Foundry loss/yield 仍 BLOCKED_SOURCE。
支持
+Q1 outlook targeted advanced-node full utilization
反对
-external customer volume/yield/loss = BLOCKED_SOURCE
J4
Tape 不支持 price-only 上楼
84%
₩207K 低于 MA5 ₩227.8K、MA20 ₩263.725K、MA50 ₩299.77K 与 MA100 ₩256.976K；1d -0.72%、5d -23.33%，仅高于 MA200 ₩192.275K 约 7.66%；RSI14 31.89、成交量 1.536× 20d 均值。广泛市场抛售仅作 secondary context，不作 Samsung-specific 因果。
支持
+July 30 completed KRX regular bar opens the inherited stress review
反对
-July-18 per-share anchors INVALIDATED；two-class / weighted-diluted bridge missing
03

拐点与发布

可能改写判断的未来事件
2026-07-30
TAPE
Post-results KRX completed regular bar
₩207K, -0.72%, O/H/L ₩214K/₩226K/₩202K, 46.150512M shares; enters 180K-220K bear-stress review; NXT excluded; no order
J4
REVIEW OPEN
2026-07-28
TAPE
High-volume KRX completed regular bar
₩220K, -13.39%, 40.36M shares; review-only boundary, no automation
J4
Gate ledger
2026-07-30
Q2
2Q26 DART actuals + official replay audit
Exact sales/OP/PBT/NI/归母 NI ₩171.4995T/₩89.4924T/₩94.4398T/₩71.6245T/₩71.2695T; PDF rounded ₩171.5T/₩89.5T; no discrete numeric consolidated Q3 sales/OP/EPS/CapEx guidance
J1-J3
MAIN_GATE_PASSED · UPDATED · task completed/disabled read-only
2026-08-28
DIV
Q2 dividend payment
DART: ₩374 common/preferred, common +₩2 vs Q1; total ₩2,455,894,601,644; declaration change, no policy change
return
primary filing
2026-07-23
IR
Shareholder-return rumor follow-up · 84735
Stock-compensation repurchase under review; no schedule/scale; re-disclosure 2026-10-22
cash
no automation
2026-07-22
MX
Galaxy Unpacked
Fixed product event; not current Memory/Foundry pivot, no task invented
mix
no automation
BLOCKED
HBM
HBM4E mass production / allocation
Commercialization “as planned” has no fixed date, named customer, allocation or numeric share; fail closed
J2
BLOCKED_SOURCE
04

止损条件

每一层的退出标准
地面 · 来源门
segment / allocation 不可读？
标 BLOCKED_SOURCE；不拿 consensus、标题或 share hypothesis 填空。
一楼 · 经营门
DS economics 断裂？
DS margin <45% 且 tape 弱，或 ASP 转负而扩产继续：拒绝升级，重跑 cycle case。
二楼 · 现金门
Memory 现金被吞？
滚动两季 OCF 盖不住 cash PP&E，或 net cash 在强定价期下降：削 Foundry option value。
三楼 · thesis 门
HBM / Foundry 里程碑失约？
Q3 HBM4 >3× / H2 share-parity outlook 失约、HBM4E 无 dated volume，或 full utilization 不转成 numeric break-even：退出上楼路径。
NO-ACTION 结论
005930KS = 一楼小卫星持有。Q2 DS/cash gates 已通过（exact OPM 52.1823%；DS 69.96%；OCF/PP&E 7.4472×；净现金 ₩167.5903T），但 Memory OP、HBM allocation/share、HBM4E dated volume 与 Foundry economics 仍 BLOCKED_SOURCE；Q3 产品指标不是 consolidated guidance，capitalized bonus expense 尚待兑现；July-18 per-share anchors 因漏计 preferred 而 INVALIDATED，₩207K 只开启 bear-stress / denominator audit：不追价、不补仓、不因一份 preliminary package/标题/RSI/价格上楼。