三层楼 · 标的看板 — THREE-FLOOR POSITION MONITOR

更新 2026-07-28 20:54 +08 · GATED / MAIN GATE PASS

TSM

TSMC ADR / TSM:NYSE

约束秩序
LGJ ESSENCE

TSMC 的 foundry economics 已被 Q2 直接证据验证；ADR 完成 regular bar 为 $399.09，落在 [363,420) risk-review wait。normalized sensitivity 为 $259 / $380 / $455；Q2/Call 已闭合，但 2nm、海外 fab、packaging、FCF 与地缘 gate 仍开。

TSM DATA_CONTRACT / EVENT_TRACKER / PRICE_BEHAVIOR / TSMC IR · dynamic quote + blocker-visible

监控台

当前价格 · 置信区间落点 · 楼层

$399.09

2026-07-27 regular close

回退

399.09 USD · 2026-07-27 completed regular-session close · moomoo OpenD [DIRECT/HIGH]; 2026-07-28 state PRE_MARKET_BEGIN, no 7/28 regular bar

363-420 risk-review wait：区分估值回撤与 thesis break；不因价格单独加新边际资本。

Official cap · 2026-06-30

~$2.1T

TSMC: NT$65.8T / ~US$2.1T；当前 ADR-implied ~$2.070T；1 ADS=5 common，拒绝 5× provider error

Q3 official guide

$44.6-45.8B

GM 65-67% · OM 56-58%

Completed regular bar · 2026-07-27

O/H/L/C 406.075 / 407.430 / 388.800 / 399.09

volume 17,932,307 · turnover $7.103B · OpenD checked 2026-07-28 20:20 +08; PRE_MARKET_BEGIN

Technical read [DERIVED/HIGH]

RSI14 41.06 · ATR14 17.59

SMA20 426.96 · SMA50 426.06 · SMA200 355.35 · 20d volume 1.20x

Normalized FY26 ADR EPS [DERIVED/MED]

$15.25 / $15.85 / $16.25

bear / base / bull；已扣除 Q2 VIS ~$0.354/ADR；对应当前 P/E 26.2x / 25.2x / 24.6x

17x / 24x / 28x sensitivity · not targets

$259 / $380 / $455

vs $399.09 = -35% / -5% / +14%；未单独定价台海尾部，skew 不支持追价

当前落点 vs 三层楼置信区间

visual scale 175-500 · contract tails unbounded

$399.09

deep audit<280

value280-330

re-underwrite330-363

risk wait363-420

no chase420-460

heat≥460

175

280

330

363

420

460

500

楼层

破坏 / 只审计

地面

margin/geopolitical break

观察 / 小仓

一楼

small satellite

当前

验证 / 卫星

二楼

Q2/CoWoS proof

核心 / 长期

三楼

not current

底气（估值）

normalized $15.85 EPS / 25.2x；$380 base sensitivity，非目标价

验证（市场）

Q2/Call official · Q3 conversion pending

结论

risk-review wait

核心判断

支持 / 反对证据 · 证据覆盖（不是概率）

Foundry economics proved; valuation sensitivity bounded

3/4

Q2 economics、advanced-node mix 与 denominator 已核；VIS-normalized sensitivity 已补，但 FCF conversion、overseas-fab offset 与 geopolitical tail 仍开。

支持

+Q2 revenue $40.201B / GM 67.7% / OM 60.3%

+advanced 7nm-and-below = 77% wafer revenue

+normalized EPS $15.25/$15.85/$16.25；current P/E 26.2x/25.2x/24.6x

缺口

-Q3/FCF/overseas-fab conversion pending

-$259/$380/$455 is bounded sensitivity, not target; geopolitical tail unpriced

Q2 and June are official; Q3 is hard proof

3/4

June/Q2 actual 与 issuer-hosted call transcript 已直接确认；Q3 margin/CapEx/packaging conversion 仍待验证。

已覆盖

+June NT$442.680B / +67.9% YoY [DIRECT]

+Q2 guide-FX equivalent US$40.075B [DERIVED]

+Q2 2026-07-16 14:00-15:30：IR [DIRECT]

未覆盖

-Q3 actuals, FCF, realized overseas-fab offset and alternative capacity economics pending

Structural killers are margin dilution and alternative capacity

2/4

官方 margin baseline 与 overseas-fab dilution guidance 已有；competitor repeat-volume/yield/economics 与 customer/CoWoS economics 仍待验证。

已覆盖

+Q2 GM 67.7%；Q3 guide 65-67%

+official overseas-fab dilution: 2-3% early, 3-4% later

+packaging capacity limits customer growth; CoWoS majority

未覆盖

-repeat external competitor volume/yield/economics pending

-customer allocation / CoWoS economics pending

拐点与发布

可能改写判断的未来事件

2026-07-13

REV

June monthly revenue and Q2 bridge

Official: NT$442.680B / +67.9% YoY; guide-FX equivalent US$40.075B [DERIVED]

completed / UPDATED

2026-07-16

TSMC 2Q26 results and conference

Official: $40.201B / GM 67.7% / OM 60.3%; issuer-hosted transcript now available

J1/J2/J3

completed / reconciled

08-10 13:30

REV

July monthly revenue

Official TSMC calendar · Asia/Taipei；bounded review runs at 13:45 +08

J1/J2/J3

task:7e9cc2b62d2b

PAUSED

QUOTE

Public quote transport freshness

Code-ready / runtime-disabled; last bounded check preserved the real trade time and failed stale data closed

display

watch:520fe534d57b

止损条件

每一层的退出标准

地面 · 数据门

来源或 freshness 失真？

五倍 market cap、stale-as-LIVE、derived-as-official 或 paused-as-active 任一出现，页面直接失败。

一楼 · 价格门

价格先走、证据没跟？

[420,460) 只持有既有小卫星；≥460 无更强 operating proof 时进入 de-risk review。

二楼 · 经营门

Q3 低于官方 guide？

Revenue <$44.6B、GM <65% 或 OM <56% 时阻断新增并重做 band。

三楼 · thesis 门

结构权力被替代？

竞争者 repeat AI/HPC volume、CoWoS/客户 allocation 转弱或海外 fab 稀释无补偿时，下调租值假设。

NO-ACTION 结论

TSM = one-floor satellite, not a chase. The 2026-07-27 completed regular close at $399.09 sits in [363,420) risk-review wait; Q2/Call is official, but Q3 margin/FCF/packaging conversion still owns the next decision.