三层楼 · 标的看板 — THREE-FLOOR POSITION MONITOR
2026-07-29 · Q2 VERIFIED · KRX CLOSE UPDATED

SK hynix

000660KS / 000660:KRX
约束秩序
LGJ ESSENCE

Q2 把 HBM 领导力、量价与现金转化推到新高，但永久税权仍未证。76% OPM 是经营事实；₩93.9T 净利含巨额非经营收益；完成收盘跌入 Tier 1 只打开复核。

Official Q2 package VERIFIED · KIND/KRX completed regular close 15:30:30 KST [PRIMARY / delayed 20m] · Naver volume CONFLICT / after-market excluded · HBM mix/good-bit/allocation BLOCKED_SOURCE
01

监控台

当前价格 · 置信区间落点 · 楼层
₩1.401M
-₩149K · -9.61%
REGULAR CLOSE
KIND/KRX [PRIMARY / DELAYED 20m] · KRX common completed regular close · page clock 2026-07-29 15:30:30 KST · fetched 16:09:17 KST / 15:09:17 +08 / 07:09:17 UTC · O/H/L ₩1.567M / ₩1.619M / ₩1.246M · official volume 12,226,372; Naver 12,183,764 = CONFLICT · Naver after-market ₩1.421M excluded
HOLD EXISTING / NO-ADD / NO-CHASE / NO ARBITRAGE / TIER 1 RE-UNDERWRITE ONLY / no price-only floor upgrade。₩1.401M 已是完成收盘，进入 Tier 1 只打开研究复核，不负责加仓、下单、broker alert、套利闸门或上调楼层。Q2 经营与现金证据保留；HBM mix、good-bit/allocation、product bits/utilization 与 durable owner FCF 仍未闭环。
Post-offer equity value
₩1,021.14T
completed ₩1.401M × 728.8655M outstanding · EV ₩951.77T after Q2 net cash
Q2 operating state
OPM 76.33%
revenue ₩79.319T · aggregate ASP ≈ +30% QoQ · HBM4 mass shipment
Reverse hurdle
6.44×
EV / annualized H1 simple FCF · peak-cycle diagnostic, not fair value
当前落点 vs 三层楼置信区间
≥1.45M = hold existing / no-add
₩1.401M
bottom review only<0.85M
normalize review0.85–1.05M
physical review1.05–1.25M
Tier 1 conditional1.25–1.45M
HOLD / NO-ADD≥1.45M
0.70M
0.85M
1.05M
1.25M
1.45M
1.90M+
Pin 跟随页面当前显示价实时价只能移动 pin，不能改动作、楼层或证据状态
楼层
破坏 / 重建
地面
margin / allocation / cash break
观察 / 小卫星
一楼
leadership proven · conversion pending
当前
验证 / 卫星
二楼
HBM4 + inventory + FCF pass
核心 / 长期
三楼
through-cycle owner value · not current
底气（现金）
Q2 simple FCF ₩55.039T · net cash ₩69.371T
验证（经营）
OPM 76.33% · HBM4 shipped · ten-ish LTAs
结论
TIER 1 RE-UNDERWRITE / NO-ADD
02

核心判断

支持 / 反对证据 · 置信度
J1
HBM 领导力与客户 pull 增强；永久税权仍未证
92%
Q2 aggregate ASP 约 +30%，HBM4 开始量产出货，约十个 LTA 验证客户 pull。DRAM/NAND 收入 mix 为 73%/27%，但 HBM mix、good-bit、allocation 与客户保护条款仍未披露。
支持
+Q2 revenue ₩79.319T · OPM 76.33% · aggregate ASP ≈ +30%
+HBM4 mass shipment · full ramp planned 2H · around ten LTAs
反对
−HBM revenue share/mix/ASP split and qualified good-bit/allocation = BLOCKED_SOURCE
−LTAs disclose no quantity, customer identity or cancellation protection
Action: HOLD / NO-ADD；Evidence: issuer/DART package + webcast；Source/as-of: IR seq=6850, DART 20260729800013, 2026-07-29 [PRIMARY/FRESH]；Assumption: good-bit converts to protected allocation and price；Confidence: 92% HIGH；Bear: LTAs make scarcity more durable than disclosed；Killer: HBM4 delay/customer cut or share <50% two periods with competitor gains；Next: Samsung cross-check + HBM4 full ramp。
J2
Q2 cash 转化极强；through-cycle owner FCF 仍未过关
82%
Q2 OCF ₩65.710T、capex ₩10.671T、simple FCF ₩55.039T；net cash ₩69.371T。单季年化仍忽略维护性 capex、营运资金与 memory ASP 正常化。
支持
+net cash ₩69.371T · OCF/capex 6.158×
+H1 simple FCF ₩73.812T · FY26 capex high-₩40T range
反对
−NI ₩93.923T includes dominant investment-asset-related gains
−maintenance/growth split, utilization and full-year owner FCF blocked
Action: no floor upgrade；Evidence: issuer/DART cash bridge；Source/as-of: FY2026 Q2, 2026-07-29 [PRIMARY/FRESH]；Assumption: simple FCF is not maintenance-adjusted owner earnings；Confidence: 82% HIGH no-add；Bear: cash conversion remains structurally exceptional；Killer: debt-funded capex with owner-FCF break；Next: audited H1 + next-quarter OCF/capex/net cash。
J3
完成收盘 ₩1.401M 进入 Tier 1；不等于买入信号
98%
KIND/KRX 的 `15:30:30 KST` 常规时段完成收盘为 ₩1.401M，落入 [₩1.25M,₩1.45M)。Naver 交叉验证价格/OHL，但成交量冲突；其 after-market ₩1.421M 被排除。以 H1 simple FCF 年化的 6.4473× EV 是 peak-cycle reverse hurdle，不是 fair value。
支持
+completed equity value ₩1,021.141T · EV ₩951.770T
+Q2 net cash and cash conversion materially improved
反对
−price only cannot certify an operating re-underwrite; Naver/KIND volume is CONFLICT
−HBM mix, bits/utilization and durable owner FCF remain unresolved
Action: TIER 1 RE-UNDERWRITE ONLY / NO-ADD；Evidence: KIND/KRX dated regular-close page + Naver cross-check + share/cash arithmetic；Source/as-of: 2026-07-29 16:09:17 KST / 15:09:17 +08 / 07:09:17 UTC [PRIMARY/DELAYED 20m/HIGH]；Assumption: peak earnings normalize；Confidence: 98% HIGH close/band, 94% HIGH no-add；Bear: Q2 durability causes price to rebound before review；Killer: price alone overrides operating gates；Next: HBM4 full ramp + Q3 sales bits/inventory/utilization/protected allocation/owner cash。
J4
系统瓶颈不是公司租金；出口与 ADR 闸门仍独立
84%
TSMC advanced packaging 仍紧，但它只能证明系统约束。BIS VEU 关闭提高 Wuxi/Dalian 许可与升级风险。F-6 仍是 G0 capacity，不是 creation-open 或 supply-confirmed。
支持
+TSMC Q2 revenue $40.2B · OM 60.3% · capex $60–64B
+Citi current SKHY books state closed; old dynamic conflict resolved
反对
−packaging scarcity does not reveal SK hynix allocation or yield
−China-fab licenses and actual post-listing ADS count remain open
Action: NO ARBITRAGE / evidence wait；Evidence: TSMC/BIS/Citi/SEC primary；Source/as-of: TSMC Q2, BIS through Jan 2026, Citi through 7/27；Assumption: public gates control public decision；Confidence: 84%；Bear: operational creation or package allocation moves ahead of disclosure；Killer: quality/export/customer trust removes allocation；Next: actual listing → dated creation-open → ADS count >177.9M。
03

拐点与发布

可能改写判断的未来事件
2026-07-29 09:00 KST
Q2
FY2026 Q2 official package verified
IR seq=6850 + issuer/DART byte-matched deck + newsroom + webcast + DART results 20260729800013. Operating thesis strengthened; missing fields remain individually blocked.
J1–J4
task:0d0aaf844af2 · succeeded
2026-07-29 15:30:30 KST
TAPE
KRX completed-close verified
KIND/KRX primary close ₩1.401M is Tier 1 only. Naver volume conflicts; its after-market ₩1.421M is excluded. No price-to-order conversion.
J3
task:f419481d2200 · succeeded / UPDATED
2026-07-30
SAMSUNG
Samsung full Q2 call
July 7 provisional consolidated sales ₩171T / OP ₩89.4T is not memory-segment evidence. Watch HBM4 allocation and memory mix.
J1/J2
manual evidence gate
MON 15:20 +08
ADR
G1–G4 semantic reconciliation
F-6 = G0 CAPACITY_ONLY. Require issuer authorization → registrations → creation open → explicit ADS outstanding above 177.9M.
J4
task:40eb3be62190
RUNNING
SEC
SEC chronology lead-only tripwire
NO_CHANGE is healthy. This watch has no semantic G1–G4 certification authority.
J4
watch:32d52a372fe0
04

止损条件

每一层的退出标准
地面 · 来源门
HBM / bits 细节不可读？
逐项标 BLOCKED_SOURCE；不拿 DRAM 73%、rumor 或 market share 拼成 HBM mix。
一楼 · 经营门
stock-flow 断裂？
production bits > sales bits，同时库存上升、ASP/mix 下滑：冻结全部价格带。
二楼 · 现金门
扩产吞掉 owner cash？
debt-funded capex + owner-FCF break，或两季 OCF 不盖 capex 且 net cash 下滑：拒绝上楼。
三楼 · thesis 门
平台 allocation 丢失？
OPM <30%，或 HBM share 两期 <50% 且竞品增配，或质量/出口/客户信任事件：重建 thesis。
NO-ACTION 结论
000660KS = 一楼小卫星。HOLD EXISTING / NO-ADD / NO-CHASE / NO ARBITRAGE / TIER 1 RE-UNDERWRITE ONLY / no price-only floor upgrade。Q2 经营与现金证据变强，完成收盘 ₩1.401M 也只负责打开复核，不负责替你下单。
Bear case：LTAs、HBM4、76% OPM 与 ₩55.039T simple FCF 是结构性重估，等待错失反弹。Killer condition：bits/inventory/ASP、HBM4 客户、OPM、capex funding、质量/出口任一硬断裂。Next trigger：HBM4 full ramp / Q3 sales bits / inventory/utilization / protected allocation / owner cash；Samsung 7/30；primary-close revision。