三层楼 · 标的看板 — THREE-FLOOR POSITION MONITOR
更新 2026-07-28 22:30 +08 · MAIN GATE ACCEPTED

ASML

REGISTERED ORDINARY SHARE / NASDAQ · NO ADR MULTIPLIER
约束秩序
LGJ ESSENCE

Q2 operating gate cleared：US GAAP sales €9.3265B，GM 54.0%，net income €2.9176B，basic EPS €7.59；IBM €2.7617B / 29.61% 与 net systems 70.39% 仍说明服务底盘真实、系统周期仍在。估值已重跑，live 价格接近机械 midpoint、不是安全边际；中国 immersion DUV 仅是 SECONDARY / PENDING 结构触发。结论：NO-ACTION / watch / do not chase。

ASML/SEC Q2 · 6-K 0001628280-26-048235 · official call · OpenD · ECB · BLOCKED_SOURCE visible · Main Gate accepted / 99% re-gate
01

监控台

当前价格 · 估值落点 · 楼层
$1,562.77
−5.46% vs QFQ ref
SNAPSHOT · INTRADAY
moomoo OpenD public quote as-of 2026-07-28 10:23:50 ET · baked snapshot / incomplete regular bar；runtime may refresh；latest raw completed close $1,655.26；QFQ adjusted reference $1,653.1092793
Live raw price `[1450,1650)` watch；raw completed close `[1650,1750)` de-risk review。QFQ 仅用于技术指标/adjusted return。
Q2 actual / Q3 guide
€9.3265B
IBM €2.7617B / 29.61% · systems 70.39% · Q3 €11–12B
Q2 profitability / FY26 guide
54.0% GM
net income €2.9176B · basic EPS €7.59 · FY26 €43–45B / GM 54–56%
valuation · live sensitivity
39.9×
FY26 midpoint sensitivity · cap $600.260B · shares 384.1m · vendor TTM P/E 49.917× · ECB EURUSD 1.1389
当前落点 vs 研究行为带
AS-OF 1450–1650 · watch · no add
$1,563 as-of
full reset<1100
safety review1100–1250
UNSOURCED GAP1250–1300 · full review
research obs1300–1450
watch1450–1650
de-risk review1650–1750
no add>1750
<1100
1300
1650
1750+
楼层
观察 / 不配置
地面
Q2 evidence gate
当前
小仓 / 研究
一楼
price + proof
验证 / 卫星
二楼
not earned
核心 / 长期
三楼
not current
底气（估值）
midpoint ≈ live；非 safety case
验证（市场）
Q2/call passed；DUV report pending
结论
NO-ACTION / 地面 / no add
02

核心判断

证据覆盖 · 支持 / 反对
J1
Q2 operating gate cleared
4/4 coverage
US GAAP Q2 sales €9.3265B、GM 54.0%、net income €2.9176B、basic EPS €7.59 与 IBM 服务底盘共同通过 operating gate；4/4 是证据覆盖，不是概率。
支持
+IBM €2.7617B / 29.61%，net systems 70.39%；~+11.0% vs press-rounded Q1 IBM EUR 2,488m
+FY26 guide €43–45B / GM 54–56%；Q3 €11–12B / GM 55–57% / IBM ~€2.9B
反对
−Low-NA adoption rate not disclosed；约 65 台 2026，2027 capacity +30%，2028 another +30% investigated
−High-NA 首个 high-volume Logic product、Intel select 18A layers，broader timing pending
J2
近端主风险是价格/预期
3/4 coverage
Live $1,562.77 已离开 >1750 heat，但 FY26 midpoint sensitivity 仍约 39.9× P/E；H1 derived FCF −€1.2909B。最新 raw completed close $1,655.26 用于绝对价格带；QFQ $1,653.1092793 仅用于技术/adjusted return，live −5.46% 以其为 reference。估值 rerun 结论仍是 watch，不是便宜。
支持
+Completed 07-27 QFQ：SMA20/50/100/200 $1,789/$1,741/$1,574/$1,375；RSI14 41.06；20d −7.77%
+Cap $600.260B；ECB EURUSD 1.1389；mid case €44B × 30% / 384.1m = €34.37 EPS
反对
−Q2/FY 上修、H2 working-capital release 与 2027 capacity conversion 可消化一部分溢价
J3
订单、servicing 与中国 DUV 是信息风险
3/4 coverage
H1 order intake extremely strong（qualitative）；Q2 net bookings/backlog 仍为 BLOCKED_SOURCE / not disclosed。官方 prepared remarks 已审，call 状态 COMPLETED / REVIEWED；中国 immersion DUV 报道缺 primary 技术/客户认证。
支持
+IBM service/upgrades strong；近乎全部 2027 Low-NA EUV 与 significant 2028 orders；High-NA Intel select 18A layers
+无 explicit current binding export/service restriction/resolution；generic risk only；China ~20% FY26 sales
反对
−net bookings/backlog：BLOCKED_SOURCE / not disclosed；不得推算、不得标绿
−China DUV = SECONDARY / PENDING；缺 throughput、overlay、yield、customer qualification、repeat output、service economics
03

拐点与发布

官方时间 · Harness 真状态
reviewed · 2026-07-15 07:00 CEST
Q2
官方财报包 · task complete
sales / GM / EPS / IBM / FY guide reviewed；Q2 operating gate cleared
J1/J2/J3
task:f841ae53df93 · completed
reviewed · 07-15 15:00 CEST
CALL
CEO/CFO investor call · reviewed
official prepared remarks reviewed；状态 COMPLETED / REVIEWED；Low-NA / High-NA / China / orders 已补录
J1/J3
no Harness mutation
blocked
ORDERS
季度 net bookings/backlog
BLOCKED_SOURCE / not disclosed；不得推算、不得标绿
J3
source blocked
pending · 07-27/28
DUV
China immersion DUV · structure review
SECONDARY / PENDING；需 primary throughput / overlay / yield / customer acceptance / repeat output
J2/J3
no watch created
future · 2026-10-14
Q3
ASML Q3 2026 results
验证 €11–12B / GM 55–57%、H2 cash conversion、order visibility 与 China/High-NA
J1/J2/J3
no task created
04

止损条件

可执行 killer · 信息失败也算失败
地面 · 信息门
把缺数当健康？
Q2 net bookings/backlog = BLOCKED_SOURCE / not disclosed；任何 ratio、green 或“订单确认”均失败关闭。
一楼 · 财务门
毛利/指引破线？
Q2 GM 54.0%、FY26 guide €43–45B 已过当前门；若 GM <50% 两季无解释，或 FY2026 收入指引低于 €36B，重估 moat 转化。
二楼 · 产品/政策门
High-NA、服务或现金受损？
若 High-NA HVM 推至 2030 后无 Low-NA 补位、binding servicing 控制落地，或 H2 cash conversion 不反转 H1 吸收，重估期权/年金价值。
三楼 · 结构门
第二条 HVM 路径商业成立？
替代光刻必须达到 repeat customer-qualified HVM，且 throughput、overlay、yield、service economics 商业相关；headline 不算。
NO-ACTION 结论
ASML 是 watchlist right，不是当前行动。Live raw `$1,562.77` 在 `[1450,1650)`，raw completed close `$1,655.26` 在 `[1650,1750)`；估值 rerun 约 39.9× midpoint FY26E，并非 safety case。`1250–1300` 是 UNSOURCED GAP：无行为推断、禁止相邻带插值、落入即 full review。Q2 bookings/backlog BLOCKED_SOURCE；China DUV 仅 SECONDARY / PENDING。不加、不追、不因价格或 headline 生成订单。