三层楼 · 标的看板 — THREE-FLOOR POSITION MONITOR
更新 2026-07-29 02:20 +08 · MAIN GATE ACCEPTED

Soitec

SOITEC S.A. ORDINARY SHARE / EURONEXT PARIS · SOI.PA
结构验证
PLATFORM GATE

Q1 证明 Photonics/AI 轨道不是 PPT；但 Mobile −10%、RF inventory correction、POI lower pricing 和历史 impairment 说明平台转换仍未完成。€99.38 只是 FALLBACK 价格锚；旧 €70/85/105/125 阈值无 valuation bridge，已撤回。

Soitec Q1 FY27 / FY26 / tax / shares · NSIG + CNINFO two-sided evidence · Yahoo SOI.PA FALLBACK · bands BLOCKED_SOURCE · MAIN GATE ACCEPTED
01

监控台

价格 · 转换 · 楼层
€99.38
−€7.67 / −7.1649%
FALLBACK · COMPLETED
Yahoo chart API · completed 2026-07-28 regular bar · previous close €107.05 · O/H/L €104.60/€105.00/€93.42 · volume 570,974 · retrieved 2026-07-29 02:07 +08 post-cutoff verification；OpenD reachable / France symbol unsupported
bands=[] / BLOCKED_SOURCE。Baked price is fallback/snapshot, not executable LIVE data；runtime may refresh the quote with source/timestamp, but may not invent band membership.
Q1 FY27
€113m
+23% organic · Edge & Cloud AI +46% organic · Mobile −10%
FY26 cash quality
€63m FCF
cash €562m · net debt €56m · FY26 GM 16.3%
valuation sensitivity
6.10× sales
EV €3.611bn / FY26 revenue；pro-forma tax EV €3.671bn / 6.20×
当前落点 vs 研究行为带
BANDS BLOCKED_SOURCE · NO-ACTION
€99.38 FALLBACK · quote observation only
unsourced / pending contractno numeric action intervals
quote
valuation bridge missing
NO-ACTION
楼层
观察 / 不配置
地面
Q1 proof acknowledged
当前
小仓 / 研究
一楼
Q2 + H1 cash gate
验证 / 卫星
二楼
repeat platform revenue
核心 / 长期
三楼
durable owner earnings
底气（估值）
仍需强转换；非 intrinsic floor
验证（市场）
Q1 passed；Q2/H1 pending
结论
NO-ACTION / 地面 / no chase
02

核心判断

证据覆盖 · 支持 / 反对
J1
Q1 proof 存在，平台转换仍 pending
3/4 coverage
Q1 period ended 2026-06-28；7/18 baseline 时仍 pending，7/22 early actual superseded July 28 calendar。Revenue €113m / +23% organic，Photonics-SOI doubled；3/4 是证据覆盖，不是概率。
支持
+Q2 revenue growth strictly >30% YoY at constant currency and scope / mechanically >€180.7m；FY27 Photonics >2x FY26 slightly above $100m
+multiple-customer, multi-year commitments beyond FY27 and cash deposits improve visibility
反对
−Mobile −10%；RF inventory correction；POI volume offset by lower pricing
−customer concentration, exact duration/enforceability/cancellation rights and Photonics margin remain BLOCKED_SOURCE
J2
税务和解不致命，但现金质量变差
4/4 coverage
FY26 cash €562m / net debt €56m 能承受 ≤€60m Q3 cash-out；但约 €320m tax-loss carryforward forfeiture 是真实价值损失。MAIN TERMS AGREED / SIGNATURE PENDING。
支持
+leverage 0.4×；undrawn credit €120m；debt maturity 3.7 years
反对
−max cash-out = 10.7% of FY26 cash；pro-forma net debt up to about €116m
−final signature and exact terms remain pending
J4
本地化许可与资本配置：事实已具体，经济结果未证
2/4 coverage
Soitec 称 NSIG extension 无新增技术转移；NSIG-side CNINFO filing 同时证明 Simgui/Simwings 获中国境内开发、制造、销售许可，十年并自动续十年。local capability VALIDATED，Soitec capture/cannibalization PENDING。
支持
+two-sided primary record；license fee/royalty structure exists；CEO lowered/targeted capex and retained ~€100m FY27 guide
反对
−final NSIG approval and royalty/cannibalization economics BLOCKED_SOURCE
−CEO product-level capital priority and realized ROIC remain pending；new material impairment kills the discipline thesis
J3
价格跌了，normalized valuation 仍不便宜
3/4 coverage
35,772,015 shares × €99.38 gives equity value €3.555bn；EV €3.611bn / 6.10× FY26 sales，maximum-tax-outflow pro-forma EV €3.671bn / 6.20×。FY26 loss means P/E is not meaningful。
支持
+mechanical €700m×25% / €800m×30% / €900m×35% cases imply 20.98× / 15.30× / 11.65× EV/EBITDA
反对
−cases are not guidance, intrinsic value or price targets
−if Photonics conversion beats materially, trough-year multiples can compress quickly
03

拐点与发布

官方时间 · Harness 真状态
7/18 pending → 7/22 actual
Q1
Q1 FY27 results · completed early
period ended 2026-06-28；€113m / +23% organic；actual superseded July 28 calendar
J1/J3
no dedicated task
2026-07-28
TAX
Settlement main terms agreed
~€320m tax losses forfeited；Q3 cash-out ≤€60m；signature pending
J2/J3
no Harness mutation
2026-07-29
AGM
Annual general meeting
governance/disclosure review only；no price action
J2
manual review
future · Q2 FY27
Q2
Guide conversion
revenue growth strictly >30% YoY at constant currency and scope implies mechanical revenue >€180.7m；verify product/margin bridge
J1/J3
no watch created
2026-11-18 after close
H1
H1 FY27 results
GM / FCF / Photonics / RF / POI / tax cash conversion
J1/J2/J3
no task created
04

止损条件

可执行 killer · 信息失败也算失败
地面 · 数据门
Fallback 被伪装成 live？
Yahoo 是 FALLBACK；OpenD France symbol unsupported。任何 stale/fallback/conflict 数据被标成 live/order 即失败关闭。
一楼 · 增长门
Q2 guide 破线？
Q2 constant-currency-and-scope growth ≤30% 或 comparable revenue ≤€180.7m 即未达严格 >30% guide；≤20% 另作 severe reset。FY27 Photonics 未达 >2x 同样失败。
二楼 · 现金门
利润/现金转化失败？
H1 gross margin <20% 且无库存解释，FCF 持续负值，或税务现金流显著超过 ≤€60m。
三楼 · 结构门
平台只是单曲线？
客户 commitments/deposits 逆转、Singapore qualifications 停滞、RF/POI 无恢复，或出现 material impairment。
NO-ACTION 结论
€99.38 是 FALLBACK quote observation；bands=[] / BLOCKED_SOURCE。Q1 beat 和 Photonics doubled 已验证；Q2/H1 转换、POI pricing、RF inventory、Photonics concentration/contract economics/margin、NSIG capture 与 signed tax settlement 仍 pending。不加、不追、不因价格/RSI/headline 创建订单。