三层楼 · 标的看板 — THREE-FLOOR POSITION MONITOR
更新 2026-08-05 · 8/4 completed-close candidate · CONFLICT / MAIN GATE PENDING · snapshot UPDATED / zone + operating thesis NO_CHANGE

Nebius Group

NBIS / NASDAQ · NEOCLOUD DELIVERY + CAPITAL CONVERSION
核心约束
ARR VS CAPITAL

$225.74 的 8/4 completed close 仍在 execution watch ($190-$230)；这是 8/1、8/3 后的同区间 snapshot，不是新 transition。waiter payload 的 deep-reunderwrite baseline 与本地 recorded state 冲突，且未证实 persistent latch；本页不修 Harness。Q2 官方安排仍是 8/12 BMO、8:00 ET call，actuals 尚未发布。默认仍是 CONFLICT / NO-ACTION / wait for Q2 and material filings。

OpenD US.NBIS K_DAY AuType.NONE · checked 2026-08-05T04:12:46–04:17:45+08 · issuer/SEC financials/event/submissions checked 2026-08-04T20:14:30Z · Financials still Q1 only · CANDIDATE PENDING MAIN GATE
01

监控台

当前价格 · owner economics · 楼层
$225.74
+$13.16 / +6.1906%
DIRECT
moomoo OpenD · completed 2026-08-04 regular close；previous $212.58；+$13.16 / +6.1906105937%；FRESH/DIRECT checked 2026-08-05T04:12:46–04:17:45+08。canonical quote is research-only, not executable.
仍在 $190-$230 execution watch，距下界 +$35.74 / +18.8105%，距上界 $4.26（尚需 +1.8871%）；O/H/L $216.41/$229.47/$215.50，volume 20,837,168（20,831,101 → 20,837,168；MED/CONFLICT）/ prior 20d 0.9389203043x，SMA5/10/20 $193.076/$194.985/$197.7655，EMA20 $202.0270，RSI14 55.2655，ATR14 $26.4982 / 11.74%。价格没有资格证明 power、delivery、cash receipt、dilution 或 DSCR headroom。
LEGAL / ECONOMIC-BASIC CAP · 8/4 CLOSE
$57.31B / $62.07B
253.898M / 274.964M DELAYED Q1 shares；legal cap understates economic-basic by ~8.30%；AGM authority is not issuance
CARRYING / FAIR-DEBT EV PROXY / DELAYED Q1 ARR
$56.47B / 29.41x
8/4 close; economic fair-debt EV $62.75B / 32.68x delayed Q1 ARR; Q1 diluted 308.972M + convertible debt would double-count
当前落点 vs 连续行为区间
current · $190-$230 execution watch · price label only
$225.74 · legal cap $57.31B
break audit<$135.82
deep audit$135.82-190
current$190-230
wait$230-245.27
no chase$245.27-270
de-risk$270-299.86
new high≥$299.86
break
$135.82
$190
$230
$245.27
$270
$299.86
heat
楼层
验证 / 只观察
地面
Q2 + delivery + capital
当前
小仓试探
一楼
guide + active-power proof
经营验证
二楼
durable per-share cash rent
长期核心
三楼
not current
底气（估值）
29.41x legal carrying / 30.20x legal fair EV ÷ delayed Q1 ARR；economic fair 32.68x；economic fair forward 8.96x-6.97x，FY revenue guide 20.92x-18.45x
验证（资本）
20% authority renewal is not issuance；$775M facility draw/outstanding/cash receipt unknown
结论
CONFLICT / snapshot UPDATED / zone + operating NO_CHANGE / fundamentals BLOCKED / NO-ACTION；CANDIDATE PENDING MAIN GATE
02

核心判断

支持 / 反对证据 · 置信度
J1
Growth/contract demand remains real, but headlines are not revenue/RPO
90%
Q1 core AI revenue $389.7M +841%、ARR $1.92B、RPO $33.585B 是 DELAYED / stale 2026-03-31 baseline；7/17 的 >$40B additional contracted revenue 仍是 headline，不是 GAAP revenue 或 RPO。
支持
+direct Q1 + Ex99.1; inference on conversion
反对
-guide/ARR or RPO/deferred reversal; >$40B fails defined mapping
J2
Capital stack has a secured facility and renewed issuance flexibility, but neither is clean owner cash
85%
约 $775M senior secured facility 新增资本路径；Agreement entered 2026-07-10，Term SOFR floor 0% + 2.50%、2030-10-31 maturity、DSCR 1.15x 和 each Borrower assets/indirect Company-held shares security 已知；voluntary prepay 需 10 business days notice，无 premium/penalty（customary breakage 除外）。draw/outstanding、fees、amortization、minimum liquidity 与 cures 未知；NO FACILITY AGREEMENT EXHIBIT。Q1 SBC $35.3M 与当前 fully diluted basis 仍是 delayed/unknown。
支持
+direct terms; authorization-risk inference
反对
-actual dilution, draw/capex/fees/covenant breach; debt/cash outruns ARR
J3
Delivery/power and customer cash remain the inflection
90%
Unnamed investment-grade customer long-term contract is in servicing phase；separately, Microsoft latest capacity tranche is delivered and remaining tranches are on schedule。Neither fact proves cash receipt, utilization or active MW。Vineland 不存在官方 November hard deadline。
支持
+separate customer servicing + Microsoft tranche claims; active MW unknown
反对
-remedy/termination; FY2026 year-end connected <800MW; weak active utilization/pricing
J4
AGM authority is not issued dilution and creates no evidenced options edge
95%
旧 put-spread 成本算术可复现，但 AGM authority 不是 issued dilution，且未知交易条款、零成交量与宽 spread 不构成 options edge。Historical NVIDIA $2B strategic capital 推翻旧 “no backstop” 前提，但不证明客户需求。没有 source-linked operating/per-share proof，不重开交易评估。
支持
+direct filing + inference from unknown transaction terms
反对
-only a source-linked operating/per-share proof event can reopen review
03

拐点与发布

observable signals · owned state
AUG 12 · SCHEDULED
Q2
Official Q2 release before market open / 8:00 ET conference call — actuals still unpublished
7/29 issuer newsroom confirms the date/call; issuer/SEC surfaces checked 2026-08-04T20:14:30Z show no Q2 actuals, new financing, issuance, dilution or delivery update. CET/CEST page-label conflict retained; results/PDF/6-K remain the operating trigger.
J1-J4
PENDING GATE
PUBLISHED · JUL 27
AGM
SEC 6-K/Ex99.1 · 0001104659-26-087080
AGM 2026-08-25；renewed 20% Class A issue/pre-emption + repurchase authorities；authorization is not issuance；Deloitte vote / Class C cancellation
J2/J4
AUDITED
PUBLISHED · JUL 17
CAPITAL
SEC 6-K + Ex99.1 · $775M facility
accepted 13:29:13Z；2 docs；no Facility Agreement exhibit；draw/outstanding/cash receipt unknown
J2-J4
UPDATED
PUBLISHED · JUL 17
AMENDMENT
SEC 6-K/A 0001104659-26-084606
accepted 20:01:04Z；FRESH / HIGH / DIRECT；incorporation-by-reference only；no Q2 date/results or new cash/debt economics
J1-J4
AUDITED
ACTIVE · CANDIDATE
FILING
Material 6-K / 6-K/A / 20-F / 20-F/A after 0001104659-26-087080
baseline 2026-07-27T20:01:28.000Z；candidate-only prompt live；Main Gate judges any callback artifact
J1-J4
watch:d6dc1b1769dd
JUL 31 · CANDIDATE
PRICE
Completed close $190.41 crosses into execution-watch $190-$230
lower-inclusive / upper-exclusive; +0.2158% above $190; canonical OpenD quote. This is a zone label update only—not an order, floor upgrade, repricing or operating proof. Next completed-price transition <190 or ≥230.
J4
PENDING GATE
AUG 3 · CANDIDATE
PRICE
Completed close $212.58 persists inside execution-watch $190-$230
Same zone as the unaccepted 8/1 candidate, not a second crossing; +$22.58 above $190 and $17.42 below $230. Snapshot UPDATED; zone/action/floor/operating thesis NO_CHANGE. Next completed-price transition <190 or ≥230.
J4
PENDING GATE
AUG 4 · CANDIDATE
PRICE
CONFLICT: completed close $225.74 remains inside execution-watch $190-$230
Snapshot UPDATED; local zone/action/floor/operating thesis NO_CHANGE; Q2 fundamentals BLOCKED. Callback deep-re-underwrite baseline is stale and no persistent latch is evidenced, so this is not a new transition. NO-ACTION; next completed close <190 or ≥230. No Harness repair.
J1-J4
CONFLICT · MAIN GATE
MAY 13
Q1
Q1 growth and delivery
ARR $1.92B；all Q1 commitments delivered；capital bridge retained
J1-J3
PUBLISHED
JUN 16
EIGEN
Eigen AI close / historical SEC filing row
0001104659-26-074352 retained historically；waiter baseline is now 087080 after AGM audit
J2
HISTORICAL
TBA
POWER
Connected vs active/utilized capacity
800MW-1GW year-end connected guide；Bloom site/COD and utilization/pricing BLOCKED_SOURCE
J2-J3
BLOCKED_SOURCE
04

止损条件

每层的 killer / replacement gate
地面 · guide 门
增长斜率还成立吗？
FY2026 revenue guide <$3.0B 或 year-end ARR <$7B：killer review；不因低价升级。
一楼 · delivery 门
Power 真接上并在用吗？
Year-end connected <800MW，或 active/utilization 两期弱：停止 floor-upgrade thesis。
二楼 · contract 门
Microsoft tranches 触发 remedy 吗？
Material damages、grace/remedy failure 或 termination：contract killer；立即重估 RPO quality。
三楼 · capital gate
Debt 真能转成每股现金吗？
DSCR <1.15x、minimum liquidity breach、default/acceleration/security enforcement，或 drawn debt/capex outruns ARR/cash：capital killer。
NO-ACTION 结论
$225.74 只刷新同区间价格、技术面与 mixed-as-of 估值：它不验证 revenue/ARR、RPO/deferred conversion、客户现金、connected/active/utilized MW、delivery milestones、cash/debt、capex/CFO 或 dilution。Q2 actuals 仍 UNKNOWN（不是零），而 economic fair EV / delayed Q1 ARR 已约 32.68x；callback baseline 与本地状态冲突。保留 DELAYED Q1 基线与资本/交付 gate；本候选不做多、不做空、不做 options、不 repricing、不升级 floor。结果/PDF/6-K、material filing 或 completed close <190 / ≥230 才给 Main Gate 新证据。