三层楼 · 标的看板 — THREE-FLOOR POSITION MONITOR
更新 2026-07-28 23:54

INTC

INTEL / NASDAQ
UPDATED
10-Q FILED

Q2 Products 修复成立；Foundry external $293M / 5.08% 中，Altera wafer manufacturing 已由 10-Q 确认为 $181M / 61.77%。14A 开发完成承诺有效，但非 Altera 客户的 volume/prepay/economics 仍 BLOCKED_SOURCE。结论：NO-ACTION / 0F。

SEC FY2025 10-K + Q2 10-Q · Intel IR/Newsroom · OpenD completed bar · evidence judgment 86% HIGH
01

监控台

completed price · filing facts · floor
$91.67
-0.7041%
FALLBACK
OpenD completed regular bar 2026-07-27 · previous close $92.32 · -$0.65 / -0.7041% · verified after cutoff 2026-07-28 23:58 +08 · runtime may refresh
$91.67 在 87–113 proof-audit gate；价格 band 只开 review，不授权交易。历史 $100.23 快照已 SUPERSEDED。
Issued-share cap / simplified net-debt EV
$462.292B / $483.102B
5.043B filed shares · adds Q2 net debt only; excludes $15.601B NCI and other incomplete claims
Simplified EV / TTM sales
8.47x / $57.032B
simplified sensitivity, not full EV or intrinsic value
当前落点 vs 三层楼置信区间
legacy review gates · no price-only action
$91.67
thesis-reset review<45
deep value audit only45–66
strategic-option re-underwrite66–87
wait / proof audit87–113
double-door no-action113–125
avoid / valuation heat>125
<45
45–66
66–87
87–113
113–125
>125
楼层
观察 / 不动作
地面
external economics pending
当前
条件观察
一楼
named volume + economics
验证 / 卫星
二楼
loss + FCF conversion
核心 / 长期
三楼
not eligible
底气（估值）
simplified EV/sales 8.47x · implied FCF high
验证（市场）
Products repair · external Foundry 5.08%
结论
NO-ACTION / no add / do not chase

Q2 2026 官方事实

quarter ended 2026-06-27 · USD millions unless stated
MetricQ2 / currentEvidence / reading
Revenue / GAAP OI16,128 / 1,796SEC 10-Q filed 2026-07-24
GAAP / non-GAAP GM40.4% / 41.8%realized Q2
CCPG rev / OI8,877 / 2,34326% segment margin
DCAI rev / OI6,262 / 2,47440% segment margin; bear case to no-action
Intel Products rev / OI15,139 / 4,81732% segment margin
Foundry rev / OI5,765 / -2,089-36% segment margin
Foundry external293 / 5.08%filed; intersegment reported rounded $5.5B
Altera wafer manufacturing181 / 61.77%filed share of Foundry external; prior BLOCKED_SOURCE status SUPERSEDED
Non-Altera external upper bound112293 - 181; not a named customer attribution
Cash + ST / debt / net debt29,727 / 50,537 / 20,810Q2 balance sheet
Non-controlling interests15,601Q2 balance sheet; excluded from simplified net-debt EV
TTM source lineageFY2025 10-K + Q2 10-Q52,853 revenue / 9,697 OCF / 14,646 PP&E base, then filed YTD bridge
Policy loss / derivative liability12,529 / 15,566government escrowed-share accounting
Adjusted FCF comparison-$8,419release bridge; retained as comparison
Issued shares / conditional warrants5,043M / up to 241Mwarrants conditional and not currently exercisable
Q3 guide15.8–16.8B / 41%–42% / 0.31–0.38revenue / GAAP-non-GAAP GM / EPS
Products operating income
+$4,817M
genuine contrary evidence
Foundry operating loss
-$2,089M
capital gate remains live
External ex-Altera upper bound
$112M
not named customer economics
02

核心判断

support · opposition · killer
J1
Products repair is real
4/4
DCAI 40% and Products 32% segment margins are strong contrary evidence to no-action, but not sufficient customer/equity proof.
支持
+Products OI $4,817M
+Q3 guide holds revenue and margin recovery
反对
-Foundry loss $2,089M and external share only 5.08%
J2
Attribution improved; economics still below threshold
4/4
The 10-Q resolves Altera at $181M, but the remaining $112M is only an upper bound. Named non-Altera volume/prepay/economics remain BLOCKED_SOURCE.
支持
+Filed Altera attribution removes the prior data blocker
+14A development completion is committed
反对
-Fortinet, Lens and RAMP-C disclose no binding economics
J3
Common-equity capture remains the hard gate
86%
Net debt, government derivative liability, SCIP repurchase and future capital needs sit ahead of a clean common-equity cash claim.
支持
+TTM OCF $14.936B before PP&E additions
反对
-Current cap implies $15.41–18.49B normalized FCF at 30–25x
14A / customer gate
DEVELOPMENT VALIDATED · ECONOMICS PENDING
18A HVM and 18A-P risk production are roadmap evidence. Manufacturing expansion still depends on committed demand and significant external design wins. Price, collaboration headlines and program completion do not clear this gate.
03

拐点与发布

event · evidence state · next
2026-07-24
FILED
Q2 10-Q resolves Altera attribution
$181M of $293M external Foundry revenue; prior Q2 Altera BLOCKED_SOURCE is SUPERSEDED
J1–J3
task completed
2026-07-21/24
CUSTOMER
Fortinet / Lens collaborations
Primary relationship evidence; no disclosed volume, prepay or economics
J2
economics pending
POST-CUTOFF
RAMP-C
Secure 18A readiness
Program/prototype evidence only; does not change action
J2
addendum
Q3
GUIDE
Q3 results
Test revenue 15.8–16.8B, margin, Foundry loss, FCF, shares and named demand
J1–J3
next trigger
04

止损条件

floor-level killer gates
地面 · 来源门
Secondary 被当 official？
任何 incomplete bar、rumor 或 collaboration headline 被标为 completed/order，证据链失败。
一楼 · 客户门
External economics 仍缺？
Altera 已归属，但 named non-Altera volume/prepay/economics 仍缺，不升楼。
二楼 · 现金门
Loss / cash 不转？
Foundry loss、资本强度或政策/SCIP/债务 claims 压倒 Products，拒绝升级。
三楼 · 交付门
14A / supply 失效？
扩产回报失败，或 Israel/helium/supply disruption materially damages delivery，thesis reset。
NO-ACTION 结论
INTC remains 0F ground watch. Q2 Products repair and 14A development commitment are validated; Altera attribution is resolved. Wait for named non-Altera volume/prepay/economics, durable Foundry/FCF conversion and clean common-equity capture. `$91.67` only opens review.