三层楼 · 标的看板 — THREE-FLOOR POSITION MONITOR

更新 2026-07-29 02:18 +08 · MAIN GATE ACCEPTED 97%

TQQQ

PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ / NASDAQ

约束秩序
LGJ ESSENCE

TQQQ 的产品不是“长期三倍纳指”，而是每日重置的路径依赖工具。2026-07-27 完成收盘 $63.40 落在 [58.92,64.91) risk re-underwrite；旧 50/200 系统的 -69.90% MDD 已触发自己的 K1，故默认只有 NO-ACTION。

TQQQ REVIEW / DATA_CONTRACT / PRICE_BEHAVIOR · ProShares / Nasdaq / OpenD · dynamic quote is context only

监控台

完成价格 · 产品结构 · 置信区间落点 · 楼层

$63.40

2026-07-27 regular close

FALLBACK

$63.40 USD · 2026-07-27 completed regular-session close · moomoo OpenD + ProShares [DIRECT/HIGH]; 2026-07-28 regular session incomplete at cutoff · runtime labels LIVE/CACHE/STALE/FALLBACK

58.92-64.91 risk re-underwrite：NO-ACTION；等待完成 bar、FOMC 与 mega-cap earnings 证据闭合。

Official NAV / market · 2026-07-27

$63.36 / $63.40

约 +6.31 bp premium · net assets $31.414B · 30d median spread 0.01%

Product cost / reset

0.97% / 0.82%

gross / net expense；waiver through 2026-09-30；financing/transaction costs excluded；3× is daily only

Completed regular bar · 2026-07-27

O/H/L/C 66.06 / 66.23 / 61.64 / 63.40

volume 70,531,608 · 2026-07-28 intraday $61.56 at 14:18 ET is incomplete context, not a decision bar

Technical read [DERIVED/HIGH]

RSI14 37.59 · ATR14 4.39

SMA20 72.36 · SMA50 76.00 · SMA100 64.91 · SMA200 58.92 · RV20 69.29%

NDX official stats · 2026-06-30

P/E 36.90× · tech 59.77%

P/B 9.46× · dividend yield 0.55% · concentrated modified-cap-weighted nonfinancial index

Official 1y path examples · not forecasts

-17.1% / +43.3% / -75.8%

NDX 0% @25 vol / +20% @25 vol / -20% @50 vol；before dividends, expenses and borrowing

Frozen seven-Gate snapshot · full prereg incomplete

+358.66% · Sharpe 0.581

official distribution cash ledger：pre-ex-date entitlement → payable date 当日或其后首个 regular bar 入账；只对冻结快照 canonical

Historical risk result

MDD -69.90%

较 buy-and-hold -81.62% 改善 11.72 个百分点，但仍触发 K1；historical issuer anchor: ProShares TQQQ

当前落点 vs 三层楼置信区间

visual scale 40-90 · contract tails unbounded · completed-close rules

$63.40

killer<58.92

risk58.92-64.91

transition64.91-76

review only≥76

58.92

64.91

楼层

研究 / 不动作

地面

K1 already triggered

当前

门控 / 复核

一楼

Gate accepted · event + 2 closes ≥SMA50

证据 / 验证

二楼

fresh OOS + costs + vol budget

核心 / 长期

三楼

not eligible under daily-reset thesis

底气（估值）

NDX 36.90× trailing P/E；高成长也可能被 multiple compression 吞掉

验证（市场）

close > SMA200，但低于 SMA20/50/100；RV20 69.29%

结论

risk re-underwrite / no-action

核心判断

支持 / 反对证据 · confidence 是覆盖度，不是假概率

Daily reset dominates long-horizon intuition

4/4

TQQQ seeks 3× one-day NDX return; path, volatility, financing and counterparty mechanics own multi-day outcomes.

支持

+ProShares prospectus: daily objective and daily rebalance [PRIMARY]

+NDX 0% / 25 vol can map to TQQQ -17.1% over one hypothetical year

反方

-Strong persistent low-vol trends can compound better than naive expectations

-Scenario table excludes expenses, financing and dividends

Long trend label survives; short-term price structure does not

4/4

SMA50 remains above SMA200 and close remains above SMA200, but price is below SMA20/50/100 with 69.29% RV20.

支持

+$63.40 remains 7.61% above SMA200

+QQQ also remains above its SMA100 and SMA200

压力

-TQQQ is 16.57% below SMA50 and 27.14% below its 52-week close high

-Intraday $61.56 is weaker but incomplete, therefore non-canonical

The old dual-MA system is validated as an experiment, invalidated as an action system

4/4

Causal timing and cash/distribution mechanics survived audit; acceptance did not. G2/G3/G5 fail and -69.90% MDD triggers K1.

已验证

+Completed-close → next-open; official cash ledger; eight split restatements

+MDD improves 11.72 pp versus locked buy-and-hold

已证伪

-Locked strategy MDD remains catastrophic at -69.90%

-Strategy CAGR 20.99% trails buy-and-hold 31.99%

拐点与发布

未来事件 · operating signal · Harness truth

07-29

FOMC

FOMC statement and press conference

Official Fed calendar；等待 completed close，拒绝 intraday reaction

J1/J2

manual / pending

07-29

EARN

Microsoft + Meta results

Review guidance, AI capex and earnings breadth from official filings/calls

manual / pending

07-30

EARN

Amazon + Apple results

Review concentration and cross-company demand; one beat is not an instruction

manual / pending

09-30

FEE

Current fee-waiver expiry

Refresh 0.82% net expense and financing disclosure before reuse

manual / pending

NONE

HARNESS

TQQQ-specific Avibe task/watch

Read-only run_definitions query at 2026-07-29 02:19 +08 returned zero matches; no mutation

delivery

not configured

止损条件

每一层的失败标准

地面 · 数据门

freshness 或语义失真？

intraday-as-completed、QQQ-as-NDX、proxy residual-as-pure-vol-drag 任一出现，页面直接失败。

一楼 · 价格门

完成收盘跌破 $58.92？

进入 killer review；禁止因低价平均成本，先重做日内杠杆与路径风险。

二楼 · 产品门

daily 3× 被写成长线 3×？

一票否决。费用、融资、counterparty 与 daily rebalance 必须同时可见。

三楼 · 系统门

旧 Gate/K1 被隐藏？

G2/G3/G5 fail 或 -69.90% MDD 缺席即失败；三楼核心当前不适用。

NO-ACTION 结论

TQQQ = floor 0 research observation. The 2026-07-27 completed close at $63.40 sits in [58.92,64.91) risk re-underwrite; FOMC/mega-cap evidence and completed closes own the next review. MAIN GATE ACCEPTED 97% / NO-ACTION.