三层楼 · 标的看板 — THREE-FLOOR POSITION MONITOR
更新 2026-07-29 12:43 +08 · MAIN GATE ACCEPTED

Qualcomm

QCOM / NASDAQ
约束秩序
LGJ ESSENCE

QCOM 的顺序不是“AI 参数领先 → 平台利润必来”，而是QTL/移动现金流 → 汽车与 IoT 扩张 → custom silicon/连接收入 → HBC 独立经济性 → 每股现金捕获。当前第一、二段有事实，后三段仍需证据。

Qualcomm IR / SEC + local moomoo OpenD · SA delayed / GuruFocus blocked · Q3 pre-release cutoff 2026-07-29 12:34 +08
01

监控台

当前价格 · 市值口径 · 楼层
$162.88
-$7.16 · -4.2108% · REGULAR CLOSE
SNAPSHOT
local moomoo OpenD · 2026-07-28 completed regular close · checked 2026-07-29 12:30 +08 · live quote BLOCKED/NO BASIC SUBSCRIPTION
$156-$165 · CONDITIONAL REVIEW / PRE-EVENT NO-ACTION；价格不授权买入
市值诊断
$171.7B
$162.88 × 1.054B issued shares；不是 diluted-share 口径
估值锚
$180.7
Q2 diluted 1.072B · diagnostic fair $180-$190 · 55% MED
估值冲突
$195-$200 REJECTED
old mixed FCFE/EV + option black box; attachment $160-$190 no bridge
技术面
MA20 177.607
MA50 201.426 · MA100 174.559 · MA200 169.140
动量
Wilder RSI14 35.729
Wilder ATR14 9.784 / 6.01% · volume / prior20D 1.1557x
Q2 基础
Rev 10.599B
QCT 9.076B / 27% · QTL 1.382B / 72% EBT
当前落点 vs 三层楼置信区间
行为区间，不是 DCF 公允价值
$162.88
止损复核<$132
深值复核$132-$145
优选复核$145-$156
条件复核$156-$165
事件等待$165-$190
趋势复核$190-$205
不加仓>$205
$120
$132
$145
$156
$165
$190
$205
$230
楼层
研究 · 观察
地面
Q3 gate + QTL/FCF base
当前
现金流稳定
一楼
QCT/QTL + auto/IoT margin
商业验证
二楼
FY27 custom-silicon revenue
平台特许权
三楼
HBC independent economics
底气（估值）
corrected anchor $180.7；fair $180-$190；55% MED；tail $142.0/$186.6/$235.1
验证（市场）
$162.88 below MA20/50/100/200；Wilder RSI 35.729；Q3 still pending
结论
WAIT / NO-ACTION / no leveraged ACCU
02

核心判断

支持 / 反对证据 · 置信度
J1
QTL 与核心现金流真实
85% · HIGH FACT
Q2 QTL $1.382B / 72% EBT margin，H1 CFO-capex 形成 $6.332B FCF；GAAP EPS 被税项扭曲，必须看现金而非 headline EPS。
支持
+Q2 revenue $10.599B；H1 CFO $7.414B / capex $1.082B
+QTL 72% EBT margin is disclosed operating fact
反对
−Apple/QCT product erosion can lower future cash conversion
−QTL renewal/collection must remain intact
J2
汽车与 IoT 是增长层，不是 Apple 自动替代
78% · MED-HIGH
Auto +38% and IoT +9% reduce handset concentration, but lifetime design-win pipeline is not annual revenue and margin/cash conversion remain gates。
支持
+Q2 auto $1.326B; Q2 IoT $1.726B
+QTL licensing is separate from Apple chip supply
反对
−Handset $6.024B, down 13% YoY
−Pipeline headlines do not equal realized annual revenue
J3
两个大客户已披露，经济兑现尚未披露
68% · MED
管理层已披露 two major hyperscaler custom-silicon deals、Q1 FY27 ramp、FY27 DC target `$5B`，并预计两位客户各贡献 `>$1B`；全部是 `[MANAGEMENT GUIDANCE/FWD]`，不是已实现收入、利润或 FCF。
支持
+Q2 DC increment +$97M YoY, primarily Alphawave
+two major deals + Q1 FY27 ramp + >$1B each are disclosed forward signals
反对
−recognized revenue, margin/FCF, concentration and repeatability remain unaudited
−first shipment is necessary-not-sufficient for economic replacement
J4
HBC 是期权，四条证据线不能混算
62% · LOW-MED
Meta C1000 是 CPU；Azure 是 planned HBC collaboration；hyperscaler deals 是 custom silicon；AI250/HBC 才是自有加速器/内存架构。133TB/s、4-8x TCO、6x bandwidth/W 仍是公司口径。
支持
+memory-wall economics and planned Azure HBC collaboration are real forward signals
+AI250/HBC roadmap exists; Modular software acquisition remains pending close
反对
−CPU/customer collaboration/custom silicon do not validate HBC economics
−independent token/$, token/W, TTFT, yield/thermal/software proof pending
J5
$162.88 是折价警报，不是 starter
82% · HIGH WAIT
修正 1.072B diluted-share 口径后，anchor $180.7 / fair $180-$190，55% MED；价格进入 $156-$165，但 Q3 尚未发生，故 post-event operating precondition 不成立。距 anchor 约 10.9%，距 bear $142.0 约 -12.8%。
支持
+corrected tail bear/base/bull $142.0/$186.6/$235.1
+P / annualized H1 FCF 13.56x；不是 proven-AI multiple
反对
−Q3 beat plus two closes above $189-$190 can open a review
−H1 SBC / FCF 27.6%；Modular maximum dilution remains pending
03

拐点与发布

可能改写判断的事件与 tracker
2026-07-29
Q3
Q3 FY2026 results + call
2026-07-29 12:31 +08 SEC freshness check仍早于 7/29 美股收盘后窗口，故 PENDING。官方 guide `$9.2-$10.0B / $7.9-$8.5B / $1.15-$1.35B / NG EPS $2.10-$2.30`；本页 `$9.6/$8.2/$1.25/$2.20` 是 analyst midpoint scorecard，不是 issuer minimum。
→ J1-J5
task:3bd9bd340f60 · ACTIVE · 2026-07-30 09:30 +08
REGULAR CLOSE
PRICE
$162.88 zone transition reviewed; $189-$190 remains confirmation
7/28 completed close `$162.88` triggered this review. It updates price/technical state but not floor/action because Q3 operating evidence is still pending。价格只验证趋势，不替代经营证据。
→ J5
watch:001c3d0dea32 · ENABLED / RUNNING · RUNTIME TRUE
2026-07-22 / H2
NEWS
Samsung design wins / Modular close
Samsung phones/watches/eyewear product inclusion is VALIDATED but economics undisclosed。Modular remains PENDING H2 close/regulatory approval with up to 19.2M shares。
→ J2/J4/J5
PRIMARY · PRODUCT REALIZED / M&A PENDING
FALL 2026
APPLE
Official fall-2026 modem evidence
拆开 QCT modem/RF 产品证据与 QTL 续约/回款；iPhone 18 / C2 仍为 unverified，须等 Apple/Qualcomm 官方证据与 post-Apple FCF bridge。
→ J1/J2/J5
task:7478b7b0bd5c · OFFICIAL EVIDENCE REVIEW
Q1 FY27 / END-2026
DC
Custom-silicon realization Gate
两大 hyperscaler deals、Q1 FY27 ramp、FY27 `$5B`、each `>$1B` 均属 MANAGEMENT GUIDANCE/FWD。Gate 要求 recognized revenue、margin/FCF、concentration、repeatability；first shipment is necessary-not-sufficient。
→ J3
task:4a8b98600d9f · REALIZATION REVIEW
MID-2027
HBC
AI250/HBC sampling + independent economics
Meta C1000 CPU、planned Azure HBC collaboration、custom silicon 与 AI250/HBC 分开核验；独立 token/$、token/W、TTFT、long-context、yield/thermal/software evidence 必须出现。
→ J4
task:72f276ebf95f · MID-2027 REVIEW
04

止损条件

每层退出 / 不升级标准
地面 · 现金流门
「FCF 与 QTL 还在吗？」
Rolling-TTM CFO-capex < $10.5B for two quarter-ends，或 QTL rev < $1.15B / EBT margin <65% two quarters，核心 thesis reset。
一楼 · 组合门
「汽车/IoT 能补 handset 吗？」
handset 下滑伴随 QCT margin/现金转换恶化且 auto/IoT 无法补位，不上楼。
二楼 · 商业门
「FY27 $5B path 是否兑现？」
路径撤回或关键 custom-silicon program slip >2Q，删掉 DC re-rating；CPU/logo 不当订单。
三楼 · HBC 门
「理论优势是否留下每股利润？」
AI250 sampling slips to 2028，或 independent system benchmark rejects economics；杀掉 HBC option，不自动杀掉 QTL core。
NO-ACTION 结论
QCOM 保持地面观察：completed close `$162.88` 落在 `$156-$165`，但 Q3 仍未发布，故 mechanically named post-event zone 只开放研究，不授权 starter；不做 leveraged ACCU，不追价。Corrected anchor `$180.7`，diagnostic fair `$180-$190`（55% MED）；旧 `$183.8` 因 diluted-share 口径纠错而 superseded，旧 `$195-$200` 与 attachment `$160-$190` 均不作 canonical fair value。Q3 2026-07-29 美股盘后是下一道证据门；analyst midpoint scorecard 与两次 `$189-$190` 上方 regular close 只开启复核。Management guidance、first shipment、second customer 都不等于经济替代；必须看到 recurring custom-silicon contribution 与 independent HBC benchmark。Killer：rolling-TTM FCF、QTL、FY27 custom silicon、HBC sampling/economics 或 dilution gate 失败。