三层楼 · 标的看板 — THREE-FLOOR POSITION MONITOR
更新 2026-07-28 23:34 +08

泡泡玛特

9992HK / HKEX
核心矛盾
THESIS GATE

泡泡玛特已经证明造出爆款并全球分发，尚未证明在 THE MONSTERS 退潮后复造多个 IP 并留下现金。7/28 静态 FY25 P/E 14.71x（moomoo provider 15.328x，定义冲突）可能是错杀，也可能是峰值盈利的便宜幻觉。[INFERRED][MED]

Key assumption：多 IP、海外复购与现金转换必须转成可持续 owner FCF；价格、股东披露与 Apple 会面不替代经营证据 · HKEX FY2025/Q1/7月 disclosures + moomoo + HKMA FX · provenance legend: [READ] source-read / [INFERRED] derived / [UNRESOLVED] blocked
BLOCKED_SOURCE

HKEX title list checked through 2026-07-28；latest issuer filing is the 7/20 next-day disclosure，仍无 H1FY26 board-meeting、profit-alert 或 results title。H1 IP mix、复购、毛利、调整净利、库存与 OCF 尚未发布。FY25/H1FY25 成本效率改善只否定“已发生 9pp 海外费用拖累”，不能关闭 2026 成本与区域 mix 反转风险。Source: HKEX title list checked7/28 + FY25 official audited delayed-period + H1FY25 official unaudited/delayed-period。[READ][HIGH] [INFERRED][HIGH] [UNRESOLVED][LOW]

01

监控台

最新报价 · 估值诊断 · 楼层
HK$162.80
-1.4528% · COMPLETED SNAPSHOT
SNAPSHOT
baked FALLBACK/SNAPSHOT from moomoo OpenD completed regular bar as-of 2026-07-28 16:08 +08，previous completed close HK$165.20，checked 23:34 +08；this pre-JS HTML value remains snapshot，runtime success only updates to a newer quote with explicit source time。O/H/L 164.60 / 165.60 / 159.20；volume 11,178,789；turnover HK$1,806,959,747 [READ][HIGH]
HK$155-165 · FIRST OBSERVATION；155 is the half-open left boundary；价格不授权买入
市值
HK$216.8137B
1.331779203B issued × HK$162.80 = exact HK$216.813654248B；current shares from HKEX 2026-07-20 next-day disclosure [READ][HIGH] [INFERRED][HIGH]
FY25 static P/E
14.71x
RMB9.58 EPS × delayed HKMA CNY/HKD 1.1549；moomoo provider P/E 15.328x at 2026-07-28 close；provider bridge [READ][MED/CONFLICT]；static definition [INFERRED][MED]；非 forward
Provider P/B
8.79x
moomoo provider field at 2026-07-28 completed close；[READ][MED/CONFLICT]；current EV BLOCKED_SOURCE [UNRESOLVED][CONFLICT]
当前落点 vs 三层楼置信区间
旧 council 行为带 · behavior contract 2026-07-14 [INFERRED][MED] · H1 后重承保
HK$162.80
压力<120
熊案120-137
深复核137-155
初观察155-165
回撤看165-183
等待183-212
不追>212
100
120
137
155
165
183
212
220
楼层
研究 · 观察
地面
等 H1 平台证据
当前
认知试探
一楼
多 IP + 复购过门
共识验证
二楼
海外质量 + 现金
信仰承诺
三楼
可重复平台已证
底气（估值）
14.71x FY25 static P/E；provider P/E 15.328x / P/B 8.79x；current EV BLOCKED
验证（市场）
高于 SMA20/50、低于 SMA100/200；20d +2.71%；RSI 52.72；volume ratio 0.933x [INFERRED][MED]
结论
NO-ACTION / first observation / wait for H1 [INFERRED][HIGH]
02

核心判断

支持 / 反对证据 · 置信度
J1
真经营底盘，不等于已证平台
78% · MED-HIGH
FY2025 的利润、现金、会员与多个 IP 证明底盘真实；复造与 owner FCF 能力仍待 H1。 Source: HKEX FY25/Q1, as-of FY ended 2025-12-31 / Q1 2026-05-12, delayed；HKEX title checked through 2026-07-28 / H1 blocked [INFERRED][MED]
支持
+收入 RMB37.120B；调整净利 RMB13.084B；GM 72.1% · HKEX FY25 as-of 2025-12-31 · official delayed [READ][HIGH]
+非 THE MONSTERS revenue RMB22.959B，+129.66% · HKEX FY25 official + derived subtraction [READ][HIGH] [INFERRED][MED]
反对
−THE MONSTERS 38.1%，plush 50.4%，inventory days 102→123 · HKEX FY25 delayed [READ][HIGH]
−H1FY26 非 THE MONSTERS、repeat 与 cash conversion BLOCKED_SOURCE · HKEX title checked7/28 [UNRESOLVED][LOW]
J2
减速已证，崩塌未证
86% · HIGH FACT
Q1 总增速从 prior-year Q1 的 165%-170% 降到 75%-80%；仍高增长，但比较基数与区域斜率已换挡。 Source: HKEX Q1 as-of 2026-05-12, official unaudited / delayed [INFERRED][MED]
支持
+PRC +100%-105%；online +150%-155% · HKEX Q1 as-of 2026-05-12 · official unaudited [READ][HIGH]
+美洲 +55%-60%，欧洲 +60%-65% · HKEX Q1 as-of 2026-05-12 · official unaudited [READ][HIGH]
反对
−APAC 仅 +25%-30% · HKEX Q1 as-of 2026-05-12 · official unaudited [READ][HIGH]
−Q1 未给 IP mix / margin / cash · HKEX Q1 as-of 2026-05-12 · fields absent [UNRESOLVED][LOW]
J3
成本门已改善，分母门仍未关
78% · MED-HIGH
FY25/H1FY25 成本效率改善，但 7/28 static FY25 P/E 14.71x 与 provider 15.328x 仍可能站在峰值分母；analytical FCF multiples 19.37x/20.66x。 Source: HKEX FY25/H1FY25 + HKMA FX as-of 2026-06-30 delayed + moomoo completed close as-of 2026-07-28；definition conflict [INFERRED][CONFLICT]
支持
+FY25 D&S 21.77% vs 27.999%、G&A 4.77% vs 7.26%、operating margin 45.50% vs 31.86% · official audited delayed [READ][HIGH]
+H1FY25 combined cost 28.56% vs 39.22%、operating margin 43.55% vs 24.71% · official unaudited delayed [READ][HIGH]
反对
−THE MONSTERS 38.1%、plush 50.4%、inventory days 102→123 · HKEX FY25 delayed [READ][HIGH]
−provider P/E definition conflict；current EV BLOCKED；Reuters margin-pressure report secondary/delayed [READ][MED/CONFLICT] [UNRESOLVED][CONFLICT]
J4
价格与股东信号不能代替 H1
78% · MED-HIGH
HK$162.80 completed close 仍在 [155,165) first observation；Duan disclosure 同时包含 long 7.65% 与 separate short 1.09%，Apple meeting 无 financial terms。平台升级必须通过多 IP、复购、海外与现金门。 Source: moomoo + HKEX DI + TechNode + HKEX title，as-of checked through 2026-07-28 [INFERRED][HIGH]
支持
+watch 对准 HKEX 官方 H1 信号；7/28 no-match is healthy [READ][HIGH]
+7/20 official shares 1,331,779,203 resolve share-count conflict [READ][HIGH]
反对
−H1FY26 official date、IP mix 与现金转换仍 blocked [UNRESOLVED][LOW]
−价格、one-day flow、shareholder/social signals cannot prove repeat or cash conversion [INFERRED][MED]
03

拐点与发布

可能改写判断的事件与 tracker
EVERY 6H
H1
HKEX board meeting / profit alert / results
只认 issuer title + exact PDF；Source: HKEX title；as-of checked through 2026-07-28；latest filing 7/20；state `no official H1FY26 title / watch READY` · [READ][HIGH]
→ J1-J4
watch:85e77a84aa7b · READY
PAUSED
旧任务
2026-08-19 unconfirmed date
Source: June council history + Avibe state；as-of read back 2026-07-28；state `unconfirmed / task paused / no issuer source` · [UNRESOLVED][LOW]
→ J4
task:ca7ec3dee38e · PAUSED
UNCONFIRMED
外部日期
2026-08-25 third-party date
Source: HKEX title + input pack routed7/14；as-of checked through 2026-07-28；state `no official announcement / no task / BLOCKED_SOURCE` · [UNRESOLVED][LOW]
→ J4
NO TASK · BLOCKED_SOURCE
2026-05-12
Q1
overall revenue +75%-80%
Source: HKEX Q1 update as-of `2026-05-12`；state `official unaudited / delayed / incorporated` · [READ][HIGH]
→ J2
INCORPORATED
2026-07-20
SHARES
56,053 vested-award shares issued
Source: HKEX next-day disclosure；as-of 2026-07-20；state `official / incorporated`；issued shares now 1,331,779,203，+0.004209% · [READ][HIGH] [INFERRED][HIGH]
→ J3
INCORPORATED
2026-07-06
DI
10.59M long at HK$150 → 7.65% / separate short 1.09%
Source: HKEX direct long Form 1 + separate short Form 1；as-of relevant event 2026-07-06；state `direct official / NO-SIGNAL`；do not net or infer one-way conviction · [READ][HIGH] [INFERRED][HIGH]
→ J4
NO-ACTION
04

止损条件

每层退出 / 不升级标准
地面 · 集中门
「增长是否脱离单 IP？」
非 THE MONSTERS 弱/负、集中度 >35% 且总增长 <20%，平台论点降级。 Source: HKEX FY25/Q1 + HKEX title checked7/28；as-of `2026-07-28`；state `H1FY26 mix blocked / stop not testable`。[UNRESOLVED][LOW]
一楼 · 复购门
「流量是否沉淀？」
复购低于 50% 停止升级；低于 45% 为 killer。 Source: HKEX FY25/Q1 + HKEX title checked7/28；as-of `2026-07-28`；state `repeat metric unpublished / blocked`。[UNRESOLVED][LOW]
二楼 · 现金门
「库存是否换回现金？」
库存天数从 123 继续恶化且 margin/profit/OCF 同降，重做盈利分母。MODEL warning：H1FY26 operating margin <40% 或 D&S+G&A >31%；只有与 inventory/OCF/adjusted-profit deterioration 共振才升级 killer/re-underwrite；≥40% 且≤31%仅关闭成本 gate。 Source: HKEX FY25/H1FY25 + official H1FY26 pending；as-of `2026-07-28`；state `historical cost gate improved / forward conversion blocked`。[INFERRED][LOW] [UNRESOLVED][LOW]
三楼 · 复造/合规门
「第二 IP 与美国交付能否持续？」
无第二 IP 接近 RMB5B 年化，或 material 产品安全/供应链/进口限制破坏美国 sell-through，不承认可重复平台。 Source: HKEX FY25/Q1 + official H1/compliance evidence pending as-of `2026-07-28`。[UNRESOLVED][LOW]
NO-ACTION 结论
HK$162.80 是 7/28 completed close，位于 [155,165) first observation；价格、RSI、one-day flow、Duan disclosure 与 Apple meeting 均不是买入或楼层升级信号。FY25/H1FY25 成本效率改善不替代 H1FY26 多 IP、复购、margin、库存与 OCF 证据。保持地面观察，不追价，不创建 broker alert/order。 Source: moomoo OpenD `2026-07-28 16:08 +08` + HKEX FY25/Q1/7月 disclosures + HKEX title checked7/28；state `fresh completed-close / official delayed-period / H1FY26 blocked`。[INFERRED][HIGH] · blocker [UNRESOLVED][LOW]